GeForce 300's - When?

[Sycraft]

ATi is not making money. While their division might be, the overall company, AMD, is losing money badly and has been for some time. Neither company is making money right now, but AMD's situation is far worse. They have been losing since before this big downturn, and their losses are quite severe. I am concerned about their future survival. Also nVidia has very little debt, and a reasonable amount of cash. AMD does had some cash, but has twice as much debt as they have cash.

The good news is that if they do fold, ATi will almost certianly be sold to someone else or spun off. We are likely to continue to have two major players in the high end graphics market (maybe 3 is Larabee is good), I'm just worried we may be down to 1 player in the CPU market.

 

[Silus]

that would be nice but I would not rule out the worst case here, they don't have them until the 32nm process comes online. ATI can afford to be nice here, they are still making money (not much but given the economy its a accomplishment) but Nvidia is bleeding (they can afford to unlike ATI but they REALLY don't want to be bleeding til Q3/10). I think they are the ones that are likely to put a firecracker up TSMC ass here

Are you out of reality or something ? ATI making money and NVIDIA bleeding ? You know that ATI is part of AMD right ?
They both lost money, which during an economic crisis isn't a surprise...but at least NVIDIA isn't losing money for 2 years, unlike AMD.

And if you are referring to the fact that a GT200 chip is more expensive than a RV770 one, which should be true, but that's not where the big sales are. The big sales are @ the GTS 250 level of cards, which is cheaper to make than any RV770 and NVIDIA sells those without problems and with a good profit margin at that.

 

[Silus]

Last I heard ATI was way ahead of the game and plan to release next gen later this year (Sept/Oct I think it was?), Nvidia was way behind and not releasing until next year at the earliest and instead was going to do a refresh of GT200 around the same time ATI releases next gen.

From what I understand the "New architecture" is something ATI has alot more experience with and thus Nvidia is struggling, I think they hired a new designer even fresh out of college to help out.

Not gonna look for links though your on your own This is just everything I've read over the past couple months take from it what you will.

You've been reading the FUD from Charlie then, since he's the only one saying that.

 

[Silus]

Could be true since G300 haven't taped out yet while AMD already has working DX11 GPUs..

Er...no. That's not what some rumors point to:

http://digitimes.com/news/a20090520PD211/nvidia_to_increase_40nm_orders_with_tsmc_for_2009.html

http://www.brightsideofnews.com/new...dy-taped-out2c-a1-silicon-in-santa-clara.aspx

 

[Silus]

next spring for nvidia's dx11, and this fall for ati. Thats what I heard.

I wonder why do people only "hear" about these kind of rumors and never the others ?

So many rumors floating around, but "some" people only read the "Charlie ones"...It's fascinating on a very sad level...

Let's get something straight, that no one can deny. Charlie is extremely biased towards AMD and against NVIDIA. So everything he writes about NVIDIA, is highly, highly doubtful, bordering the lie territory. Ok ?

 

[VE2007]

With these new video cards coming out would they work with any motherboard with a pci slot? thanks

 

[Valset]

Are you out of reality or something ? ATI making money and NVIDIA bleeding ? You know that ATI is part of AMD right ?
They both lost money, which during an economic crisis isn't a surprise...but at least NVIDIA isn't losing money for 2 years, unlike AMD.

And if you are referring to the fact that a GT200 chip is more expensive than a RV770 one, which should be true, but that's not where the big sales are. The big sales are @ the GTS 250 level of cards, which is cheaper to make than any RV770 and NVIDIA sells those without problems and with a good profit margin at that.

um, here is a reality check, ATI can make money as part of AMD while AMD is still losing money. ATI was in the black while Nvidia was not. Fanbioism aside ATI had a good cycle while Nvidia was sucking it. Look for the turn around to come. But that doesn't change what just happened.

and if you think the GTS250 (rebranded old card at that) is carrying Nvidia you need to read into it some more.

 

[Valset]

ATi is not making money. While their division might be, the overall company, AMD, is losing money badly and has been for some time. Neither company is making money right now, but AMD's situation is far worse. They have been losing since before this big downturn, and their losses are quite severe. I am concerned about their future survival. Also nVidia has very little debt, and a reasonable amount of cash. AMD does had some cash, but has twice as much debt as they have cash.

The good news is that if they do fold, ATi will almost certianly be sold to someone else or spun off. We are likely to continue to have two major players in the high end graphics market (maybe 3 is Larabee is good), I'm just worried we may be down to 1 player in the CPU market.

ATI did go into the black what ever AMD status was. ATI is owned by AMD, but that does not determine whether they made or lost this cycle

 

[Silus]

um, here is a reality check, ATI can make money as part of AMD while AMD is still losing money. ATI was in the black while Nvidia was not. Fanbioism aside ATI had a good cycle while Nvidia was sucking it. Look for the turn around to come. But that doesn't change what just happened.

Really ? And how does that work ?
Let me explain: ATI is owned by AMD, AMD as a whole loses money. Much more money than the graphics division (e.g. ATI) made, so how exactly does ATI (owned by AMD) make money ? Whatever ATI (graphics division) gained goes to R&D expenses, which were funded by AMD as a whole, so I really don't see what kind of logic you have there...it's just your wishful thinking talking.

and if you think the GTS250 (rebranded old card at that) is carrying Nvidia you need to read into it some more.

Rebranded and old that still competes with ATI's finest, so what's the problem ? Oh right, it's not red

Also this:

http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/14131/34/

 

[DeadSkull]

Rebranded and old that still competes with ATI's finest, so what's the problem ? Oh right, it's not red

Also this:

http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/14131/34/

Didnt' know that HD 4850 was ATI's finest card out right now. G92 maybe cheap to manufacture but GTX 2xx chips sure arent as evidenced by drastic price cutting tactics used by Nvidia with gtx 260c216 and gtx 285 pcbs (no volteraa, less layers, etc). Besides G92 cant keep Nvidia afloat forever and I seriosly doubt Nvidia wants another $650 GTX 280 repeat a year from now.

Also bread n' butter isn't with $100 cards its with even cheaper $40-$50 cards that are destined for big OEMs, I think ATI is doing really well in that area right now.

 

[Silus]

Didnt' know that HD 4850 was ATI's finest card out right now. G92 maybe cheap to manufacture but GTX 2xx chips sure arent as evidenced by drastic price cutting tactics used by Nvidia with gtx 260c216 and gtx 285 pcbs (no volteraa, less layers, etc). Besides G92 cant keep Nvidia afloat forever and I seriosly doubt Nvidia wants another $650 GTX 280 repeat a year from now.

RV770 is the same in both HD 4850 and HD 4870, so yes it's ATI's finest and latest, unless you want to nitpick and consider RV790 as the finest, but that doesn't cost $100.

Also bread n' butter isn't with $100 cards its with even cheaper $40-$50 cards that are destined for big OEMs, I think ATI is doing really well in that area right now.

And so is NVIDIA, with their 9400s and 9500s. But those are about major quantities, which will obviously lead to good profits, but not necessarily the highest profit margins. The highest profit margins come from cards such as the 9600 GT, 8800 GT and GTS 250 cards for NVIDIA and HD 4670 and HD 4850 cards for ATI. The HD 4770 would be there too, if it wasn't mostly vaporware, given it's extremely limited supply.

 

[DeadSkull]

And so is NVIDIA, with their 9400s and 9500s. But those are about major quantities, which will obviously lead to good profits, but not necessarily the highest profit margins. The highest profit margins come from cards such as the 9600 GT, 8800 GT and GTS 250 cards for NVIDIA and HD 4670 and HD 4850 cards for ATI. The HD 4770 would be there too, if it wasn't mostly vaporware, given it's extremely limited supply.

But can 9800 GT / GTS 250 sales compensate for the losses on the sales of underpriced GTX 260s and 275s?

Also what does Nvidia have planned in terms of a mid range card that will be the sucessor to g92?

 

[Silus]

But can 9800 GT / GTS 250 sales compensate for the losses on the sales of underpriced GTX 260s and 275s?

Why are you assuming there are losses in the first place ? I'm sure profit margins are very slim, maybe it's no profit at all, but I don't know if they are selling at a loss.
The loss for each card thing, came from who ? You guessed it...Charlie...that spread some more FUD that NVIDIA was losing money on each GTX 2xx card. Obviously every red believed that and included it in any argument they had, but no one knows anything, except NVIDIA.

As in any business (and especially technology), companies tend to sell their products at much higher prices that it actually costs them to manufacture it, so that they can make great profit margins (just look at Apple). Let's say NVIDIA hoped to get $300 off each GTX 280, but when a HD 4870 offered 80% of it's performance for more than half the price, they had to cut down that margin, in order to sell the cards.

Also what does Nvidia have planned in terms of a mid range card that will be the sucessor to g92?

I have no idea. When they are released, we will see.

 

[vengence]

that would be nice but I would not rule out the worst case here, they don't have them until the 32nm process comes online. ATI can afford to be nice here, they are still making money (not much but given the economy its a accomplishment) but Nvidia is bleeding (they can afford to unlike ATI but they REALLY don't want to be bleeding til Q3/10). I think they are the ones that are likely to put a firecracker up TSMC ass here

I'm not sure I'd call the division making less than 1% above break even "making money", but it's good in this economy. Nvidia is bleeding money,but at current rates they have 6 quaters before they run out of straight cash, which is ignoring the stock sale options, any loans (they have none), etc. They also increased thier R&D budget ~50% last quarter which imho points to good things to come. With a 40% margin on thier revenue they will pick back up strong as the market returns. But for now..... no so much.

But can 9800 GT / GTS 250 sales compensate for the losses on the sales of underpriced GTX 260s and 275s?

As I said before, right now they are making a 40% profit on average over the chips they have sold. Thier revenue was 664M with a cost of revenue of ony 474M, which means on what they sold they made 190M. So yes, it can more than make up for any "loss" on 260 and 275s. However, I'm not convinced that they are loosing money on those.

 

[DeadSkull]

As I said before, right now they are making a 40% profit on average over the chips they have sold. Thier revenue was 664M with a cost of revenue of ony 474M, which means on what they sold they made 190M. So yes, it can more than make up for any "loss" on 260 and 275s. However, I'm not convinced that they are loosing money on those.

Do those profits also include revenue from workstation cards?

 

[vengence]

Do those profits also include revenue from workstation cards?

They include everything they sale. Because everything they sale contributes to brand image which sales everything. "From the leader in graphics cards comes this workstation card". Of course, despite the insane ratios on workstation card silicon, they spend a lot on driver support per card compared to a Geforce. The sales numbers of graphics cards is also much much higher than workstation cards.

 

[vanilla_guerilla]

ok, so they will be out either in a few months or next year. spend your money on something else. go to vegas for the weekend. there are softer and rounder things to think about.

 

[Silus]

ok, so they will be out either in a few months or next year. spend your money on something else. go to vegas for the weekend. there are softer and rounder things to think about.

Agreed! Though Vegas is out of my range at the moment

 

[vengence]

ok, so they will be out either in a few months or next year. spend your money on something else. go to vegas for the weekend. there are softer and rounder things to think about.

Roulette wheels aren't soft though....

 

[pxc]

ATI can afford to be nice here, they are still making money (not much but given the economy its a accomplishment) but Nvidia is bleeding (they can afford to unlike ATI but they REALLY don't want to be bleeding til Q3/10).

Reality is not your friend. Every graphics chip maker is doing poorly the last 6 months. In the last 2 quarters, the AMD graphics unit has lost $9 million.

AMD operating income by quarter CY, graphics unit*:
Q1'09 1 million
Q4'08 -10 million
Q3'08 47 million
Q2'08 -38 million
Q1'08 13 million

* non-gaap, not counting corporate overhead, special charges or interest payments on loans (interest payments for the ATI acquistion are in couple hundred of million range each year)

Not that nvidia has been doing that great itself, but considering the lack of debt and no massive losses like AMD had for 9 (soon to be 10) straight quarters, nvidia is much more likely to survive any doom scenario.

nvidia net income by quarter CY**:
Q1'09 -46 million
Q4'08 -94 million
Q3'08 74 million
Q2'08 286 million
Q1'08 211 million

** non-gaap, not counting special charges or stock options granted

nvidia's revenues are 2-4x higher than the AMD graphic unit revenues. This quarter is going to look ugly again and I expect both to post losses.

 

[alg7_munif]

-46 is how many times higher than +1?

 

[pxc]

I look only at what interests me too:

1 - 10 + 47 - 38 = a big fat $0 over the past 4 reported quarters (really, you don't want me to go back another year)

-46 - 94 + 74 + 286 = $220 million in the same time period

$220 million is how many times higher than $0?

 

[alg7_munif]

Why 4? Not 3 or 2?

 

[pxc]

Why 4? Not 3 or 2?

Just trying to keep up with your arbitrariness.

I know, mission impossible, right?

 

[alg7_munif]

Just trying to keep up with your arbitrariness.

I know, mission impossible, right?

I'm just wondering how did you get your "2-4x higher" number. Was it quarter to quarter, half year to half year, year to year or how was it?

 

[Silus]

This is getting off topic. The financial data is clear for everyone that knows how to read, so let's leave that for another thread.

G300/GT300 rumors here.

 

[Valset]

Really ? And how does that work ?
Let me explain: ATI is owned by AMD, AMD as a whole loses money. Much more money than the graphics division (e.g. ATI) made, so how exactly does ATI (owned by AMD) make money ? Whatever ATI (graphics division) gained goes to R&D expenses, which were funded by AMD as a whole, so I really don't see what kind of logic you have there...it's just your wishful thinking talking.



Rebranded and old that still competes with ATI's finest, so what's the problem ? Oh right, it's not red

Also this:

http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/14131/34/

let me explain here, AMD does own ATI,beleive it or not I understand this. ATI is an AMD asset, AMD goes bankrupt. its assets get sold off. including a profitable (barely) graphics company. ATI as a company made money when it competitor didn't

and before your resort to crying fanbioism maybe yous should read my sig? and and the last three cards were both green as well. You may not agree with what I am saying but accusing me of being pro ATI doesn't look good on your part.


and the problem with rebranding is that its pretty dishonest. the fact that the 8800GTX architecture is still viable is pure sign of its awesomeness. (one of the best cards I owned) but its time is pass.

 

[vengence]

and the problem with rebranding is that its pretty dishonest

What the hell do you think they do with cars every freaking year? This isn't an 08' honda accord, it's an 09' honda accord.

 

[pxc]

G300/GT300 rumors here.

Sadly there are no remotely semi-accurate (ha) rumors. TSMC is having problems and it's not clear what shape the G300 is in. It's a unique situation for nvidia, which is usually more cautious about early process adoption. This should be a more interesting topic by the end of summer.

 

[Silus]

let me explain here, AMD does own ATI,beleive it or not I understand this. ATI is an AMD asset, AMD goes bankrupt. its assets get sold off. including a profitable (barely) graphics company. ATI as a company made money when it competitor didn't

ATI is NOT a company. ATI is the graphics division of a company, called AMD. So if that was the basis of your argument, you are wrong.

and before your resort to crying fanbioism maybe yous should read my sig? and and the last three cards were both green as well. You may not agree with what I am saying but accusing me of being pro ATI doesn't look good on your part.

What does a sig have to do with anything ? Anyone can change their sig and include whatever they want. You being pro ATI/NVIDIA has more to do with what you say, than your sig.

As for not looking good on my part, read below.

and the problem with rebranding is that its pretty dishonest. the fact that the 8800GTX architecture is still viable is pure sign of its awesomeness. (one of the best cards I owned) but its time is pass.

What doesn't look good is calling something dishonest, when there's no dishonesty. Does the GTS 250 compete with the HD 4850 ? Yes it does. Are people paying more for the GTS 250 ? No, they are essentially at the same price, with few exceptions. There's no dishonesty, just people that seem to be mad that NVIDIA's "old" chip is still able to compete with ATI's newest...

 

[Silus]

Sadly there are no remotely semi-accurate (ha) rumors. TSMC is having problems and it's not clear what shape the G300 is in. It's a unique situation for nvidia, which is usually more cautious about early process adoption. This should be a more interesting topic by the end of summer.

Yeah, NVIDIA usually uses the last known stable process for the high-end and tests the new one, with lower end chips. But maybe that's what's happening with the new mobile chips @ 40 nm. NVIDIA tested 40 nm with those and will be using that knowledge for G300/GT300. Much like it was rumored that that was the reasoning behind the HD 4770 for AMD. I still doubt we'll see any high-end chips (from either company) this year, but it's wait and see.

 

[vengence]

What doesn't look good is calling something dishonest, when there's no dishonesty. Does the GTS 250 compete with the HD 4850 ? Yes it does. Are people paying more for the GTS 250 ? No, they are essentially at the same price, with few exceptions. There's no dishonesty, just people that seem to be mad that NVIDIA's "old" chip is still able to compete with ATI's newest...

I really REALLY don't understand this argument at all. What's dishonest is Fry's selling a 8800 UItra for 700$ right next to a 400$ GTX 280. That's dishonest. Best buy trying to sell a 2900XT for 269.99 RIGHT NOW Nvidia rebadged a card to their new naming scheme so someone who didn't know what cards were would have some idea of how it preformed compared to other cards. Otherwise someone is going to read 8800 GT and have know idea how that compares against a GTX 260. At least now they know it's less than a GTX 260.

 

[Renegade87]

ok, so they will be out either in a few months or next year. spend your money on something else. go to vegas for the weekend. there are softer and rounder things to think about.

Yo vanilla_guerilla,

I'd love to go to Vegas (again) with my "soft and round thing". Maybe I will get there in the not too distant future.

Anyways, I went ahead and ordered the eVGA GeForce GTX 285 2GB FTW to replace my eVGA GeForce 8800 GTX. The 285 FTW will arrive today. I'm looking forward to it.

I also added a PC P&C Silencer 910 PSU to my Newegg order. 74 Amps on the +12v rail ought to cover it

So, I could've waited for the ... GeForce GTXXX 975 Super Ultra to be released in Q3 2015... or I can get the 2GB 285 (clocked at 702MHz!) today and go to Vegas with my "soft and round thing" in Q3 2010!

Sounds like a plan to me.