sharknice
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DRAM Pricing Jumps 50%, Only 70% of Orders Getting Filled
- Thread starter erek
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When dealing with tariffs, companies play with where the material or items are sent before they enter the country to avoid them. It is fairly easy to do but oftentimes increases transportation costs. There are ways to transport and consider components or an item's value changed by grouping them in different ways, and actual value versus retail value and so on. Tariffs do not increase costs to a company at the same rate that the tariff numbers imply.
I have seen tariffs end up increasing profits for companies due to the companies raising the items at the tariff rate instead of what they managed to compile the product for, slightly bypassing the tariff. People are doing the correct analysis by looking at earnings and profits to see if they are bypassing tariffs.
It is easy for electronics components like memory to get designated as "critical infrastructure" and "DRAM and NAND flash, are currently shielded from the highest tariff rates". Phones and fully built computers from China have to use the tactics I mentioned earlier to dodge the tariffs.
I have seen tariffs end up increasing profits for companies due to the companies raising the items at the tariff rate instead of what they managed to compile the product for, slightly bypassing the tariff. People are doing the correct analysis by looking at earnings and profits to see if they are bypassing tariffs.
It is easy for electronics components like memory to get designated as "critical infrastructure" and "DRAM and NAND flash, are currently shielded from the highest tariff rates". Phones and fully built computers from China have to use the tactics I mentioned earlier to dodge the tariffs.
What do you mean, demand is so high that those datacenter have a very hard time and need to throttle service all the time during peak time....
On openRouter token usage more than doubled just from late december to early february:
And that was after 2024 to 2025 looked like this:
Look at openAI and anthropics revenues explosion:
they would be bigger if they had more compute, that undersell the demands.
DukenukemX
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For what? Are data centers being used for customers with real demand, or to train AI for demand that hasn't been made?
All the figures provided above is pure inference/usage, not training. Is $55 billion of ARR for OpenAI and Anthropic alone not real demand ? 20 trillion of tokens a week last april on what just OpenRouter track (2-5% of total world LLM usage) ?
OpenClaw and other agentics development exploded customer demands, what would be demand, 200 billion ARR for OpenAI and Anthropic, 2,000 trillions tokens a day ? There is reason they stopped SORA, that Anthropic take its time to release claude mythos with its "infinite" context window, they need to make choice with what they do with the compute/memory available, because demands is really high versus current capacity.
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“Memory Prices Won’t Drop Even as Shortage Eases, Korean Research Firm Warns Hyperscalers Locked In Long-Term”
https://wccftech.com/memory-prices-...-firm-warns-hyperscalers-locked-in-long-term/
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They make enough money with people buying them at the inflated prices. If people stopped buying them, they'd maybe lower the prices. Prices on used RAM on eBay has actually gone up a bit, so things are not looking good.
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aren't the current prices just the new normal?
don't see prices going down unless a crash happens
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Yeah...
A crash would be both good and bad.
DukenukemX
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Bad for who?
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People who have jobs, mortgages, etc. A crash would also mean an economic crash, all bubbles cause them.
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"The Mac Mini is sold out for "several months" as AI developers snap them up for local agent workloads
Tim Cook admits Apple was caught off guard by Mac Mini demand"
https://www.techspot.com/news/112267-mac-mini-sold-out-several-months-ai-developers.html
DukenukemX
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If you're worried about a crash that can be caused by the AI bubble popping, then it'll happen sooner or later.
Makes sense since Apple's ram tax is no longer a problem. Kinda surprised Apple didn't raise the price of ram yet?
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They said they have tons of supply right now that is going to offset the RAM spike for a little while, but once that inventory runs out it's going to suck ass.
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“Micron CEO Warns AI Is Only in the ‘First Innings’ as Memory Supply Tightens, With DRAM and NAND Demand Set to Exceed 50% of Industry TAM
Micron posted a record Q2 as DRAM demand increases, but its CEO says this is just the beginning as more memory is required for AI to reach its full capabilities.
Micron CEO Sees Demand For Faster Memory To Increase Massively For AI To Reach Its Full Potential
Memory & Storage maker, Micron, has seen exceptional growth across all of its businesses, which include DRAM, NAND, and HBM. The growth comes from skyrocketing demand for their products as the Agentic AI craze continues to lift off every memory and storage firm.”https://wccftech.com/micron-ceo-war...ings-memory-supply-tightens-dram-nand-demand/
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“The Pixel 11 Could Be the Next Victim of the RAM ShortageBeauHD an hour ago | 4 |
| Google's Pixel 11 lineup could see RAM cuts or lower starting configurations because of the global memory shortage, with leaks suggesting the base model may drop from 12GB to 8GB while Pro models could add 12GB versions below the current 16GB tier. The Verge reports: There will be 16GB configurations available for each, but adding a lower-spec model could mean the 16GB version is getting a price hike. However, the silver lining is that the specs from MysticLeaks also include camera upgrades and brighter displays for the Pro models. The RAM shortage is pushing other phone makers, including Samsung, to raise prices, too.” |
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“Motherboard Sales 'Collapse' By More Than 25%BeauHD 24 minutes ago | 2 |
| Motherboard sales are sharply declining as AI demand drives shortages and price hikes for memory, storage, CPUs, and other PC components. "Because of this, users who don't have deep pockets are putting off upgrading their PCs and holding on to their current devices longer," reports Tom's Hardware. From the report: Asus, which sold 15 million motherboards in 2025, has only shipped a little more than 5 million in the first half of 2026. It's expected that the company will have to push hard for it to even move 10 million units by the end of the year, marking a 33% decrease in sales year-on-year. Gigabyte and MSI sold 11.5 million and 11 million motherboards last year, respectively. However, both companies have revised their internal forecasts for 2026 to 9 million (Gigabyte) and 8.4 million (MSI), a 22% drop for the former and a 24% contraction for the latter. ASRock will be hardest hit by the situation, with the company's shipments projected to fall by 37%, from 4.3 million in 2025 to just 2.7 million by the end of the year. This marks a contraction of 28% for the overall motherboard market, at least for the big four manufacturers. [...] Aside from this, AMD continues to use the AM5 socket for its latest processors, while Intel's Nova Lake, which will reportedly use LGA 1954, isn't available until later this year. The situation is further compounded by Nvidia not releasing a refreshed RTX 50 Super series this year, while rumors claim that the RTX 60 series will not debut until 2028. This confluence of factors is discouraging PC builders from upgrading their current systems.” |
A more meaningful comparison would've been to how many motherboards were sold in the first half of 2025. I'm guessing there are seasonal variations. If we naively divide 15 by 3 (since it's only the first week of May) we see that 5 ~= 5.
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^ This
We've been needing a big crash/reset for a while...
Yes.. it's painful.. but these type of "events" really do "need" to happen. Yes, its crazy to even say this.
All that does is allow the big companies to buy up more of everything cheaper and give us less lube to go around when it gets higher then today
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Yes... unfortunately it is a catch-22
DukenukemX
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That's how you get a positive change. Boil a frog slowly, and they won't notice. Boil the frog quickly, and no frog soup for you. But also, the frog comes back and sues you, making frog soup illegal. One of the positive outlooks from all this is that the big three DRAM manufacturers might have even more competition when this is over. China's CXMT isn't going anywhere, and Intel's ZAM might be the ram they include with their chips going forward. Considering how many chips Intel will sell, this will be a big concern for Hynix, Samsung, and Micron.
Yes, it'll suck when the AI bubble pops because peoples 401K's and pensions may go with it. You should probably be asking why is your retirement tied to the stock market to begin with?
View: https://youtu.be/aRLxcx79OvE?si=Sc6UwOgwuFUK_aNn
If ai crashes our whole economy is going and we will lose world superpower status.
Before they let that happen ww3 will start.
You're right. I can't help but feel like we've been in this bubble for the last 10 years that keeps getting more crazy by the day. At some point there is going to be a hangover of biblical proportions.
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Because there aren't really any other methods to have your money grow faster than inflation is devaluing it? Between the 0.01% that banks offer for "savings" accounts, to the somewhat rare 3+ % on a 12 month CD when banks are desperate.
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LoL, right? Your missing out on massive gains if your not in the market. The key is to diversify across sectors and assets. On average, a well balanced portfolio can expect 8%~12% per year.
Also, look at online banks, brick and mortar are trash past keeping some availablefor cash. Online right now will pay over 3.25% or more, at one point I was making 4.5% when rates were higher just to keep money in a safe place, FDIC insured to 500K as well. Just a savings account, no strings attached, and paying monthly!!!
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I'm earning ~4% in several dedicated savings accounts (glorified CDs) at my CU. Between 15 and 60 months maturity, eventually maybe all 60.
Not amazing, but insured and better than 0.01% or some bs.
Not amazing, but insured and better than 0.01% or some bs.
DukenukemX
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The AI market is hiding the fact our economy was in the shit hole. If you don't have a functioning economy after AI, then it wasn't functioning to begin with. By economy, I mean stock market. It's pretty clear the rules of the stock market today are very different than they were 10 or 15 years ago.
Don't ignore what's going on in the middle east. That war with Iran isn't exactly going in our favor. One wrong move and it'll be WW3. It also indicates we're losing our world superpower status.
How so ? passive investing is maybe stronger than ever (the amount of money that goes in buy the weighted S&P500 type) and the public stock markets are the smallest ever versus bonds and private (Bonds and others got really big in the 2000s versus stocks, and now company stay private a lot).
Even without counting how giant residential real estate got, public stock market % of wealth has not been that small in a very long time, but to the point of being very different ?
The rules feel quite similar to me.
For me, it isn't the mechanism of the stock market but how companies are being run as a result of the stock market. Big investors seem to want faster returns so companies are now all about the quarterly profits instead of having a good long term business strategy. In my opinion, this is hurting long term investment in many companies not having a solid foundation to exist long term. With a few exceptions, companies are all running very lean as a result which means more stress on workers and less stable jobs going around.
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Intel and even AMD have been pushed to beyond dot com CSCO level valuations in this corrupt market, and effing Sandisk from 27 to 1400 in 6 months, sure this party will continue forever..
It is a bit strange think to say, with so many of the big company right now that shifted to the complete opposite, many of the biggest profit printing machine (meta, google, microsoft) shifted to investing in giant long term project instead and by historic figure, hurting their current quarter profit line, stock market capex seem in historic high no ?
In that sense, at least in the space it is quite different than 10 years ago, big tech/silicon valley is way more capital investing/long time horizon/more future revenues oriented than next quarters profits than they were in the past (even if of course they always had giant R&D spending, i.e. any many long term business strategy, just more costly now as they involve building a lot of infracstructure that will take a decade to pay off)
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"Nintendo Announces $50 Switch 2 Price Increase as Pokémon Pokopia Crosses 4 Million Sales
by Cpt.Jank Yesterday, 20:00 Discuss (9 Comments)Pokémon Pokopia is widely known to have been a successful launch for Nintendo, with the life sim having recently climbed its way to the top of Metacritic's 2026 game rankings with an impressive 89 Metacritic score. Now, recent financial filings indicate that Pokopia has been more than simply a critical success, with the Japanese gaming giant having sold over 4 million copies of the game in the five weeks after its launch on March 31, 2026. By comparison, Pokémon FireRed and LeafGreen had achieved roughly the same sales figures in six weeks, while Donkey Kong Bananza and Pokémon ZA have sold 4.52 million and 3.94 million units, respectively.
In less positive news, however, Nintendo has also revealed that the Nintendo Switch 2 will get a price increase on September 1, 2026, to $499 in the US and €499 in the EU, while Japanese customers can expect to pay ¥59,980, up from ¥49,980, as soon as May 25, 2025. Nintendo expects the Switch 2 to sell 16.5 million units in the 2027 financial year, down 16.9% from the FY 2026 projection of 19.86 million units. Between the Nintendo Switch and Switch 2, Nintendo reported hardware sales of 23 million units for the same period. The Switch 2 price increase has been expected since January 2026, thanks to rising DRAM and BOM costs across the board."
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"PlayStation 6 Price and Launch Date Remain Uncertain in Face of DRAM Pricing Uncertainty
by Cpt.Jank Yesterday, 14:13 Discuss (8 Comments)Despite earlier rumors speculating about both the upcoming PlayStation 6's pricing and supposed launch date, it has come to light in a recent investor call that Sony has yet to actually decide on either of those aspects of the new console's launch. When asked about the progress of the next-gen console, Sony CEO, Hiroki Totoki, said that "Looking at the current circumstances, the memory price is also expected to be very high FY 2027, because there will still be a shortage of supply," going on to explain that "We have not yet decided on at what timing we will launch the new console or at what prices, so we would like to really observe and follow the situation."
Sony isn't the only console maker struggling with pricing. The Xbox Helix is expected to launch at a price of around $1,000 when it eventually hits the market, and, while the rumor mill has nothing to say about Nintendo's next console launch this early in the Switch 2's lifecycle, there has been talk of a potential price increase for the Nintendo Switch 2—an issue worsened by softening US sales. The PS5 itself also recently saw a sizeable price increase, and although Sony didn't provide a justification for the price increases outside of "the global economic landscape," the assumption has largely been that increasing DRAM prices have been to blame for"
If you're talking about technology in stock market, we literally just had a crash in 2022. People forget Nvidia cratered like 70% in 2022. Even recently, Micron also fell 30% just a few months ago. Oracle got smoked last year. Microsoft can't get off its ass because people are projecting Anthropic to continue to beat the crap out of OpenAI. These things don't happen in a bubble. Dot com was a bubble. This might become a bubble, but investors have actually been pretty disciplined and logical throughout this process. Everyone's calling things bubbles without looking at profit and margin growth just because they want cheaper RAM and GPUs to buy and/or they didn't buy equities in the lead up to this and they're mad they missed the ramp. We might get a bubble out of AI eventually, but I'm not convinced we're in one right now.
S&P500 averages like 8-10% annually.