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DRAM Pricing Jumps 50%, Only 70% of Orders Getting Filled

Marees said:
when will memory prices start to decrease erek ??
Click to expand...

1788653941594.png
 
Marees said:
transcript / TLDR ??
Click to expand...
I can only assume that they are making tons of chips, not nearly as many as are being sold by them, and their plan is to flood the market when companies/governments get too desperate to rely only/mostly on other sources.

This is a very risky play, as it is using money and resources on product assuming it won't be obsolete when they finally are able to sell, and assuming that the market will eventually open up to them. If they never get sold, for whatever reason, cxmt will be left holding the (massive) bag (of almost worthless chips).
 
Nobu said:
I can only assume that they are making tons of chips, not nearly as many as are being sold by them, and their plan is to flood the market when companies/governments get too desperate to rely only/mostly on other sources.

This is a very risky play, as it is using money and resources on product assuming it won't be obsolete when they finally are able to sell, and assuming that the market will eventually open up to them. If they never get sold, for whatever reason, cxmt will be left holding the (massive) bag (of almost worthless chips).
Click to expand...
it is a command economy. they are pretty good at directing capital where they want to go. ex: solar, EV, HSR etc.

they are not afraid to pop bubbles like real estate too.

but it is all driven from the top. in the sense the govt may not directly fund this but full state support including currency depreciation to enable exports

I was just wondering when all this will make a material difference to memory price. primarily looking at lpddr5x price as that is what will go into a Steam Machine, Series S2 or Handhelds
 
Marees said:
yes, sir.

what is the implication ????
Click to expand...
i asked for a summary for you,
ChatGPT said:
Yes — CXMT / China creating a historic memory glut is the correct topic. I found the exact video: “China Will Create A Historic Memory Glut.” YouTube


The short version​


The video's thesis is that China's rapid expansion of memory-chip manufacturing—especially CXMT for DRAM and YMTC for NAND—could eventually break the current memory shortage and trigger a huge global oversupply.


The argument goes roughly like this:


  • Memory is a brutally cyclical industry. When prices are high, manufacturers add capacity. Eventually supply catches demand, then exceeds it, and prices can collapse.
  • Right now we're in an unusual AI-driven memory shortage. Samsung, SK hynix and Micron are making enormous profits because AI servers are consuming huge quantities of DRAM/HBM/NAND.
  • China is building memory capacity at the same time. CXMT has become a legitimate fourth DRAM manufacturer, while YMTC is expanding NAND. CXMT's global DRAM share was already around 7.7% at the end of 2025. Vertical+1
  • The crucial difference is that China isn't necessarily making capacity decisions purely according to normal market economics. Semiconductor self-sufficiency is strategically important to Beijing, so China can tolerate investment/payback periods that conventional Western companies might avoid.
  • If CXMT keeps adding fabs and eventually reaches production volumes comparable with the established players, it doesn't need to become #1 to disrupt the market. Adding a fourth major supplier to a three-company oligopoly could dramatically change pricing dynamics.
  • And because DRAM is essentially a commodity, once enough supply appears, customers have enormous leverage and prices can fall very rapidly.

Why CXMT is particularly interesting​


CXMT isn't some theoretical future company anymore.


It has gone from being a loss-making Chinese memory startup to a substantial DRAM producer. Its 2025 revenue reportedly jumped 155.6%, and its Q1 2026 revenue was up 719% YoY. R40


It also isn't necessarily competing by simply selling memory for pennies. That's an important nuance: reports indicate CXMT's DRAM prices have been only 5–10% below Samsung/SK hynix/Micron, and some Chinese server DDR5 has even reportedly been priced above comparable Samsung products. Vertical+1


So the potential threat is capacity, not necessarily “China dumps dirt-cheap RAM on the world.”


The really important part​


The video is essentially making a future-cycle argument, not saying:


“CXMT is going to flood the market tomorrow.”
Click to expand...

In fact, current data suggests we're still in a shortage, and some analysts explicitly argue that CXMT's added output won't be enough to eliminate it in the near term. One recent estimate says CXMT will contribute about 11.3% of global net new DRAM bit supply in 2026, while the overall market would still remain undersupplied. XenoSpectrum


The concern is what happens after everyone responds to today's shortage.


You get this sequence:


AI boom → memory shortage → huge profits → everyone expands capacity → China expands aggressively → capacity arrives → supply catches demand → supply exceeds demand → memory prices collapse.


And memory companies have historically been extremely vulnerable to this cycle.


Why this could be especially painful for Micron/Samsung/SK hynix​


Their current profitability is partly based on scarcity.


If CXMT eventually adds enough commodity DRAM capacity, the established companies may have to:


  • cut prices,
  • reduce utilization,
  • delay/cancel expansion,
  • accept lower margins,
  • or shift more capacity toward higher-value HBM.

That last point is important: HBM is somewhat different from ordinary DDR4/DDR5 DRAM. CXMT's ability to compete in advanced HBM is still much less mature, so China's first major impact is more likely to be on commodity DRAM, rather than immediately destroying NVIDIA's HBM supply chain. Vertical


My takeaway from the video's thesis​


I think the most useful way to interpret it is:


The video isn't really predicting that CXMT will “win” the memory market. It's predicting that China's success in building memory capacity could make the memory market dramatically more competitive—and potentially create the next giant memory-price crash.


There's a legitimate counterargument, though: China may simply absorb its own production. Chinese AI companies, cloud providers, PC makers and electronics manufacturers have enormous domestic demand, so CXMT could expand substantially without immediately dumping all that memory onto Western markets. Current evidence actually suggests Chinese demand is helping absorb CXMT's output. XenoSpectrum+1


So I'd characterize the video's thesis as plausible but timing-dependent, rather than “CXMT will definitely cause a glut.”


The fascinating question is not whether CXMT can make DRAM. It clearly can. The question is how many bits China ultimately decides to manufacture—and whether domestic demand can absorb them.

Sources
Click to expand...
 
erek said:
i asked for a summary for you,
Click to expand...
the conclusion is correct. China is absorbing all domestic demand right now

it is hopium that they can supply meaningfully to the international market
 

“The capacitor supply chain bottleneck is becoming a bigger AI trade in the market​


KEY POINTS
  • Artificial intelligence supply and demand dynamics are becoming a feature of more sector trades in the stock market.
  • The latest AI technology thematic bet showing up in exchange-traded funds is with capacitors, a technology manufacturing niche dominated by a handful of Asian companies, some of which have seen their shares rise over 100% in 2026.
  • What are known as MLCCs, multilayer ceramic capacitors, help to stabilize the intense power demands within data center operations.
Trading on commodity cycles within the technology sector is nothing new, and it's often associated with peak moments. Semiconductor ETFs like iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) and VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) date back to the 2000/2001 period. For decades, the quarterly 13F filings of hedge funds have also detailed rapid movements into and out of chip stocks as booms and busts proceeded. AI is creating a new level of interest and playing field for this kind of trading, often through ETFs.
There are roughly two dozen broad-based AI ETFs, but increasingly, there are niche trades targeting components from with the AI economy, such as memory — led by the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) — and more recently, ETFs targeting companies in the photonics market, which focuses on AI data center optical networking innovation. There is also a growing AI thematic bet focused on supply and demand in the capacitor market, components that are crucial to stabilizing the intense power demands in data centers.“
 
JPMorgan expected memory shortages to persist for another two years, estimating that roughly 300,000 additional monthly wafer starts of DRAM capacity and 45,000 of NAND would be needed for the market to bring supply and demand back into balance by 2028.

UBS projected the global DRAM market would remain undersupplied until at least the second quarter of 2028.

https://amp.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/...e-boom-last-research-suggests-not-much-longer
 
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CXMT DRAM Capacity Reportedly Sold Out Through 2027 as Major OEMs Fight For Supply​

Published One month ago by Hilbert Hagedoorn

According to a DigiTimes report, the company's production capacity has effectively been booked through the end of 2027, leaving limited availability for additional customers. The report claims that major OEMs including Dell, HP, and Apple have successfully negotiated future memory allocations, while smaller PC vendors have been left with little remaining capacity. The difference largely comes down to purchasing scale. Large manufacturers can commit to significantly higher order volumes over multiple product generations, making them more attractive customers for long-term supply agreements.
 
I wish RAM manufacturers would put on the packaging whether it's SK Hynix, Samsung or Micron.
 
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Marees said:
transcript / TLDR ??
Click to expand...

China Will Create A Historic Memory Glut​


Market Disruption Timeline​


  1. 🌊
    Chinese memory manufacturers CXMT and YMTC have captured 8% and 14% global market share respectively as of 2025, positioning them to trigger a historic supply glut and price crash within 1-2 years despite operating 2-3 generations behind Western competitors due to US export controls on advanced chip equipment.
  2. 💰
    Chinese producers achieve similar quality to Western manufacturers but incur higher production costs by building in additional redundancy to compensate for elevated defect rates caused by reliance on older equipment restricted by US export controls.

Global Market Penetration​


  1. 🌍 YMTC NAND storage already appears in Lenovo laptops sold in the EU, demonstrating that Chinese memory products bypass US market restrictions by entering the global market through non-US channels despite both companies being on the US Commerce Department's entity list.

Industry Economics​


  1. 📉 The deflationary nature of the memory industry—where prices decline over time due to technological advances and increased competition—ensures Chinese memory will depress global prices for all manufacturers regardless of US market access restrictions.

Competitive Dynamics​


  1. 🏭
    Chinese state-owned semiconductor companies leverage their position to flood global markets with memory chips, creating parallel dynamics to China's EV industry expansion where domestic overcapacity translates into aggressive international market penetration.
  2. 🛡️
    Micron's lobbying efforts and US export controls have failed to prevent Chinese memory manufacturers from achieving significant production scale, forcing Western competitors to face price pressure across all non-US markets.

Summary for:
View: https://youtu.be/f8kUx5_1cWc by Noiz — Download YouTube Subtitles
 
DanNeely said:
No one in the DRAM industry cares about crashing the market from over supply. They do it every half dozen or so years.
Click to expand...
IMHO, China is happy to subsidize a company running in an oversupplied shrinking the margins for US manufacturers as this is the exact play they have used over and over.
 

“CXMT Reportedly Struggles With HBM3E, Yields Are Only 25%​

by AleksandarK Today, 10:59 Discuss (10 Comments)
Chinese memory giant CXMT is reportedly facing difficulties with HBM3 production, according to South Korean media. Late last month, it was revealed that CXMT had begun risk production of HBM3E memory, lagging two generations behind Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, who are already progressing with HBM4E sampling. At that time, it was known that the company was conducting HBM3E risk production in limited runs, but details were scarce. However, today we learn that three out of four HBM3E stacks are defective, indicating that CXMT currently operates at a 25% yield. Stacking DRAM is a complex task, as the technology required is much more intricate than planar DRAM manufacturing, an area where CXMT reportedly excels.

The low yields are reportedly due to the immaturity of the through-silicon via (TSV) technology that CXMT employs. In front-end manufacturing, CXMT achieves around 30% yields, while back-end processing yields about 70% on top of the original 30%. For instance, Samsung uses about 5,000 TSVs per layer on HBM2, and SK hynix uses more than 8,000 TSVs per layer on its HBM3. However, data suggests that CXMT is attempting to achieve HBM3E with only 3,000 TSVs per layer and is trying to pack 8 layers in the regular 8-Hi HBM3E configuration. Given these challenges, the company is unlikely to transition to a higher-capacity 12-Hi HBM in the near term as it addresses engineering challenges.“
 

“CXMT and YMTC Stockpile ASML Tools for Three-Year Expansion Plans​

by AleksandarK Yesterday, 04:49 Discuss (21 Comments)
Chinese memory and storage makers have reportedly stockpiled enough lithography tools from ASML to ensure their expansion plans for the next three years, even if they are cut off from the supply chain. According to a report from the Financial Times, memory maker CXMT and storage giant YMTC have secured sufficient DUV lithography tools from ASML to support their growth plans for the next three years, despite increasing tensions and potential bans on exporting these older DUV tools to China. The United States government is reportedly pressuringthe Dutch government to completely halt tool exports to China.

In a new bipartisan bill called the Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware (MATCH) Act, the US government is considering forcing allied countries to implement a technological ban on exporting even the older DUV machines. This could mean that ASML might nearly cease all exposure to China, as the older DUV tools are targeted by US export restrictions. For ASML, this means that nearly one-fifth of its projected revenue for this year could suddenly disappear if the bill is passed.“
 

“Apple Raises Prices Across the iPhone Lineup as DRAM Costs Catch Up​

by DrUsmanSaleem Today, 19:41 Discuss (2 Comments)
As was rumored for months, Apple's iPhone 18 Pro launch on September 9 brought price hikes across almost every iPhone in its lineup, not just the new models. The iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max now start at $1,199 and $1,299, a $100 jump over the iPhone 17 Pro pair, both of which have been discontinued. Apple also raised prices by $100 across the board on the phones it kept around. The iPhone 16 now starts at $799, the iPhone 17e at $699, the iPhone 17 at $899, and the iPhone Air at $1,099. None of these older models got any hardware changes to justify the bump.

The timing of these price hikes aligns with what's become an industry-wide DRAM shortage, driven largely by AI data center demand soaking up memory supply. Apple CEO Tim Cook has previously compared the situation to a "hundred-year flood," and said the company can no longer absorb rising memory and storage costs like before. This mirrors what's already played out across the PC space, where DRAM and SSD price hikes have been hitting system builders and OEMs for months. It looks like Apple, despite its scale and negotiating leverage, isn't immune to the same memory price pressure squeezing the rest of the industry.“
 
Another hopium news on memory shortage. Kepler Computing reported that they are working on a new way to create memory for AI compute use without EUV machine using a completely different technology approach. Lack of scientific details, perhaps a trade secret.
BTW, US Department of Commerce committed to give Kepler up to $245 million to “develop in the US a new class of high-performance AI memory technology, enabled by innovative 3D and ferroelectric technologies."
 
So I was complaining a few months ago about the price of 64gb dimms, when a set of 2x 64gb were 1500, I checked yesterday, and now the cheapest set that isn't 5600 speed is 2300$!
This sucks so hard.
 

“Chinese Chipmaker SMIC Expands Market Share with $3 Billion Quarterly Revenue​

by AleksandarK Today, 09:46 Discuss (0 Comments)
Chinese semiconductor maker SMIC has increased its market share as the world's third-largest chipmaker. According to the latest report from TrendForce, SMIC now holds 5.4% of the semiconductor manufacturing market share in Q2 this year, a slight increase from 5.1% in Q1. In the three-month period ending in June, SMIC generated about $3 billion in revenue from domestic companies producing homegrown silicon. This marks a significant improvement compared to $2.2 billion in Q2 2025, with a slight increase in market share from that period's 5.1%. This indicates that overall capacity has increased across the supply chain.

SMIC's most advanced manufacturing nodes include the SMIC N+2, a 7 nm-class node used by Huawei to manufacture its Ascend series of AI accelerators and other infrastructure parts, and the SMIC N+3, a 5 nm-class node for its customers. The company uses DUV to print silicon designs but faces significant challenges in achieving its silicon ambitions as it currently has no access to EUV tools, since ASML has restricted exports of its EUV scanners, and it is the only company manufacturing EUV machinery at scale.“
 
My last 2x16GB memory kit I bought was on August 12, 2026. It was used on eBay for $247, which was a decent deal, but I was also using over $100 in rewards points. He also sent me a 5600MHz kit instead of the 6000MHz kit that was in his product description, so I requested a return. He partially refunded me $85.60 (in order not to deal with a return). So in the end, it cost me around $61.40. It doesn't have XMP or EXPO, and there's no heatspreaders, but I'm calling it a win.
 

“Steam Deck 2 Plans Haven't Changed Despite RAM Crisis, Claims Valve​

by DrUsmanSaleem Today, 09:35 Discuss (2 Comments)
Valve has confirmed that the ongoing DRAM shortage hasn't changed anything about its plans for a Steam Deck 2, even though the crisis has driven up prices on the company's other hardware. Speaking with IGN's Jacqueline Thomas, Valve developer Pierre-Loup Griffais was asked directly whether the memory shortage had affected the next handheld's development. Here's what he told IGN:
"We've talked before about how we want to make sure there's a very delineated performance improvement for something like a future Steam Deck, and I think we're still looking at it in the same way. It's just a matter of looking at the current conditions and seeing how and when we can deliver something like that. But from what we're working on, as far as the user experience goes and what the product that we're trying to build goes, it's very similar goals."“
Click to expand...
 
erek said:

“Steam Deck 2 Plans Haven't Changed Despite RAM Crisis, Claims Valve​

by DrUsmanSaleem Today, 09:35 Discuss (2 Comments)
Valve has confirmed that the ongoing DRAM shortage hasn't changed anything about its plans for a Steam Deck 2, even though the crisis has driven up prices on the company's other hardware. Speaking with IGN's Jacqueline Thomas, Valve developer Pierre-Loup Griffais was asked directly whether the memory shortage had affected the next handheld's development. Here's what he told IGN:
Click to expand...
Considering the price of the Steam Frame I'm not looking forward to the Steam Deck 2.
 
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"Patriot Launches Viper Steel 5 Infinite ROG Edition Memory With Speeds Up to 7,600 MT/s​

Press Release by Nomad76 Today, 14:58 Discuss (3 Comments)
Patriot Memory today announced the release of the Patriot Viper Steel 5 Infinite RGB DDR5 ROG Edition. Born from an official certified collaboration with ASUS Republic of Gamers (ROG), this high-performance kit combines extreme DDR5 speeds with a patent-pending 3D Infinite Mirror optical structure. Built with tested XMP 3.0 base profiles reaching up to 7,000 MT/s, the series features an exclusive ROG Certified BIOS integration that unlocks hidden performance profiles up to 7,600 MT/s on compatible ASUS ROG motherboards.

Designed to complement the ASUS ROG hardware ecosystem, the Viper Steel 5 Infinite ROG Edition is housed in a custom matte carbon-black aluminium heat spreader. The chassis is styled with an official ROG Certified red label, slashed dot-matrix typography, and a diamond-cut Viper logo. Atop the module, a solid-media optical light-bar projects a multidimensional 3D light tunnel within standard memory slot dimensions, syncing seamlessly across ASUS Aura Sync, SignalRGB, and major motherboard RGB software."
 
erek said:

"Patriot Launches Viper Steel 5 Infinite ROG Edition Memory With Speeds Up to 7,600 MT/s​

Press Release by Nomad76 Today, 14:58 Discuss (3 Comments)
Patriot Memory today announced the release of the Patriot Viper Steel 5 Infinite RGB DDR5 ROG Edition. Born from an official certified collaboration with ASUS Republic of Gamers (ROG), this high-performance kit combines extreme DDR5 speeds with a patent-pending 3D Infinite Mirror optical structure. Built with tested XMP 3.0 base profiles reaching up to 7,000 MT/s, the series features an exclusive ROG Certified BIOS integration that unlocks hidden performance profiles up to 7,600 MT/s on compatible ASUS ROG motherboards.

Designed to complement the ASUS ROG hardware ecosystem, the Viper Steel 5 Infinite ROG Edition is housed in a custom matte carbon-black aluminium heat spreader. The chassis is styled with an official ROG Certified red label, slashed dot-matrix typography, and a diamond-cut Viper logo. Atop the module, a solid-media optical light-bar projects a multidimensional 3D light tunnel within standard memory slot dimensions, syncing seamlessly across ASUS Aura Sync, SignalRGB, and major motherboard RGB software."
Click to expand...

$1,500 on Amazon for 32GB.

FFFFFFFFuck that.
 

“Intel and SK hynix Could Start DRAM Production in United States​

by AleksandarK Today, 06:59 Discuss (1 Comment)
According to anonymous sources close to Reuters, Intel and SK hynix are in talks to start DRAM production lines in the United States for the first time. This means that Intel might either collaborate with SK hynix to acquire memory IP technology in a joint venture or SK hynix could lease part of Intel's facility in Ohio. In the first scenario, a joint venture between Intel and SK hynix would significantly alleviate supply chain pressures, as hyperscalers, fabless chip designers, and others are in urgent need of more DRAM. Since these firms would likely consume all the DRAM produced in the coming years, both Intel and SK hynix would have a substantial financial interest in the joint venture.

On the other hand, if SK hynix decides to lease Intel's facilities in Ohio, the South Korean memory giant would pay premiums for leasing the facility while retaining all production for itself. Reuters couldn't determine which specific technology would be the focus of the facility, but the primary goal is to produce regular planar DRAM, HBM, and some storage solutions with NAND Flash. Intel declined to comment on the rumor but noted that the Ohio investments are continuing regardless. SK hynix stated that the company has not finalized its decision or any cooperation but did not explicitly rule out the possibility of future collaboration. Therefore, an official decision should be announced soon.“
 
https://x.com/MelvinInvests/status/2100229197969133692

Citi expects memory shortages to persist through 2031 as AI infrastructure consumes growing quantities of high bandwidth memory, server DRAM and enterprise storage.

HBM bit demand is projected to increase 62% in 2027 and another 69% in 2028, while total DRAM demand is expected to grow 30% and 35% during those years.

The problem is that DRAM supply is projected to grow only 19% in 2027 and 22% in 2028, leaving market deficits of 8.7% and 9.7%, respectively.

1789568980305.png


A deficit does not mean that memory completely disappears but it does mean that customers collectively want substantially more memory than manufacturers can supply at current production levels.

HBM is intensifying the shortage because it requires advanced DRAM dies, complex packaging and more manufacturing capacity than conventional server memory.

As manufacturers allocate additional resources to HBM and server DRAM, less capacity remains available for other products, which spreads pricing pressure across the broader memory market.

The same imbalance is developing in NAND, where demand is projected to grow 29% in 2027 and 33% in 2028, compared with supply growth of only 21% and 25%.

AI servers need enterprise SSDs to store model weights, training data, retrieval databases and the growing volumes of information generated by AI agents.

This means the AI boom is increasing demand for both the memory located beside the accelerator and the storage systems feeding data into the cluster.

The memory manufacturers could experience several years of higher prices, stronger margins and greater revenue visibility instead of another brief commodity cycle.

Micron’s 2026 HBM production is already sold out, while additional fabrication capacity from its Tongluo facility is not expected to provide meaningful output until the second half of 2027.

SK Hynix has similarly reported that customer demand exceeds available supply, while Samsung expects AI infrastructure spending and agentic AI to keep HBM, server DRAM and enterprise SSD markets undersupplied.

Micron and SK Hynix provide the most direct exposure to HBM and server DRAM, while Samsung offers broader exposure across memory, foundry and advanced packaging.

SanDisk provides greater exposure to the NAND and enterprise SSD shortage, while the South Korea ETF offers a more diversified way to gain exposure to Samsung and SK Hynix.

Bullish on memory and if these shortages really persist through 2031, I think the market is still underestimating how much pricing power memory companies could have.
 

Stealth Startup Kepler Computing Says It Cracked the AI Memory Shortage​


Kepler's pitch is stronger than the usual lab-result story because GlobalFoundries is already involved. Wired reported that Kepler and GlobalFoundries converted a fab line to next-generation status in eight months, compared with about 24 months for a typical conversion. That is not a small operational claim. GlobalFoundries executive Kaste also told Wired that iron, which is part of Kepler's composite, is "a tough contaminant to introduce into a production facility," so the process needs dedicated equipment or tight encapsulation.

That sentence is the real story hiding under the breakthrough language. A memory chip doesn't win because it works once. It wins when it works over and over, on wafers that move through a production line without poisoning everything around them.

Kepler has only run its process on about 2,000 wafers so far, according to Wired. The company plans to ship first HBM chip samples later this year, ramp production in Singapore in 2027 and start US chip production in 2028. Those dates matter, but you should treat them like semiconductor dates: useful as a map, dangerous as a promise.

The US government is not treating Kepler as a science project. On July 29, 2026, the Commerce Department announced letters of intent for up to $874 million in CHIPS Act incentives across seven companies working on compute supply chain problems. Kepler was listed for up to $245 million to develop high-performance AI memory in the US using 3D and ferroelectric technologies. GlobalFoundries was listed separately for up to $300 million for co-packaged optics.
 
If Kepler says he can do it, I believe him. The guy is a genius and has already saved Intel and AMD multiple times in the past with his chip designs.
 
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