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storage situation to ease starting H2 2027

M

Marees

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NAND Flash Supply Growth to Outpace Demand in 2027, Easing Supply Constraints in 2H27, Says TrendForce​


TrendForce points out that although servers now account for more than 40% of total NAND Flash bit demand, smartphones and notebooks together still represent nearly 40% of overall demand, meaning the consumer market continues to play a decisive role in determining overall market conditions.

demand from the smartphone and notebook PC markets continues to weaken. TrendForce forecasts global smartphone production to decline 15–20% YoY in 2026. Although AI-enabled premium smartphones are expected to support demand in the high-end segment, limited recovery in end-market demand and increasing consumer price sensitivity will likely result in another year of declining smartphone production in 2027, albeit at a more moderate pace.

The notebook market is also expected to remain under pressure. Following an estimated shipment decline of around 10% in 2026, notebook shipments are projected to contract slightly again in 2027 due to persistently high component costs, including memory and CPUs.

https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260721-13148.html



View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXGBYI6B6rg&t=300s

erek said:

"Chinese memory maker YMTC wants to dethrone Samsung and SK hynix by the end of 2027​


YMTC has some big plans.


With the memory crisis in full swing, it's taking severe chunks out of the supplies of both NAND (used for SSD storage) and DRAM, which is used for RAM modules. Chinese memory maker YMTC has had a lucrative couple of years with the former, yet it's not done yet. YMTC reportedly wants to sit at the very top of the pile for NAND flash memory, and it wants to do it very soon.

According to the Financial Times, citing "two people with knowledge of the matter", YMTC told investors that it wants to be the leader in the market (ahead of Samsung and SK hynix) by the end of 2027. That's a pretty bold claim considering it would need to more than double its current market share.
According to Counterpoint Research, YMTC holds a 13% market share, while NAND memory leader Samsung holds 29%. In fairness, though, YMTC does appear to be building up its infrastructure to handle growth."

https://www.pcgamer.com/hardware/ss...rone-samsung-and-sk-hynix-by-the-end-of-2027/
Click to expand...
 
hopefully this bodes well for Xbox launching 2027 / 2028

can we expect a Series S2
  1. starting $599
  2. matches or beats ps5 pro
  3. 24gb lpddr5x memory
  4. 0.5TB+ storage
??
 
Marees said:

NAND Flash Supply Growth to Outpace Demand in 2027, Easing Supply Constraints in 2H27, Says TrendForce​


TrendForce points out that although servers now account for more than 40% of total NAND Flash bit demand, smartphones and notebooks together still represent nearly 40% of overall demand, meaning the consumer market continues to play a decisive role in determining overall market conditions.

demand from the smartphone and notebook PC markets continues to weaken. TrendForce forecasts global smartphone production to decline 15–20% YoY in 2026. Although AI-enabled premium smartphones are expected to support demand in the high-end segment, limited recovery in end-market demand and increasing consumer price sensitivity will likely result in another year of declining smartphone production in 2027, albeit at a more moderate pace.

The notebook market is also expected to remain under pressure. Following an estimated shipment decline of around 10% in 2026, notebook shipments are projected to contract slightly again in 2027 due to persistently high component costs, including memory and CPUs.

https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260721-13148.html



View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXGBYI6B6rg&t=300s
Click to expand...

Micron Explores Near-GPU NAND Flash to Run Bigger LLMs

https://hardforum.com/threads/dram-...orders-getting-filled.2044343/post-1046372551
 
4TB SSD drives cost $500.00 average 8TB drives are $1500 average three times as much!! I'm wondering if this is good quality memory not Chinese knockoff stuff that just looses all your files.
It's says in the video YMTC
 
Last edited:
Marees said:

NAND Flash Supply Growth to Outpace Demand in 2027, Easing Supply Constraints in 2H27, Says TrendForce​


TrendForce points out that although servers now account for more than 40% of total NAND Flash bit demand, smartphones and notebooks together still represent nearly 40% of overall demand, meaning the consumer market continues to play a decisive role in determining overall market conditions.

demand from the smartphone and notebook PC markets continues to weaken. TrendForce forecasts global smartphone production to decline 15–20% YoY in 2026.

The notebook market is also expected to remain under pressure. Following an estimated shipment decline of around 10% in 2026, notebook shipments are projected to contract slightly again in 2027 due to persistently high component costs, including memory and CPUs.
Click to expand...
So by "easing supply constraints" do they mean from a 6-8% decline in total demand, caused by declining smartphone production (and unknown in notebooks)? That doesn't seem like much. Is that also assuming AI won't eat up the freed up demand?

erek said:
Micron Explores Near-GPU NAND Flash to Run Bigger LLMs

https://hardforum.com/threads/dram-...orders-getting-filled.2044343/post-1046372551
Click to expand...
This is interesting. I don't see how this would help at all.

PCI-E 5.0 SSD bandwidth: ~15 GB/s
PCI-E 5.0 bus bandwidth: ~63 GB/s
RTX 5090 bandwidth: ~1,800 GB/s

So the bus isn't a limitation of the memory bandwidth. Is latency a problem?

Also, why does Micron care? I know they sell NAND, but they also sell GPU memory. What's in it for them? Exclusivity?
 
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sleepeeg3 said:
do they mean from a 6-8% decline in total demand, caused by declining smartphone production (and unknown in notebooks)? That doesn't seem like much.
Click to expand...
In supply chain shock, 6-8% is a lot, the difference between a supply being 5% smaller than demands if it run at full capacity vs 2% bigger is massive, can go from shortage record profit to a bit of oversupply panic time.

smarthphone were over 1.1 billion new unit a year and was the biggest consummer of NAND not so long ago (bigger than pc client+enterprise+data center together), if they continue to go down in 2027 after the 15-20% slow down in 2026, it is a lot.
 
sleepeeg3 said:
This is interesting. I don't see how this would help at all.

PCI-E 5.0 SSD bandwidth: ~15 GB/s
PCI-E 5.0 bus bandwidth: ~63 GB/s
RTX 5090 bandwidth: ~1,800 GB/s

So the bus isn't a limitation of the memory bandwidth. Is latency a problem?

Also, why does Micron care? I know they sell NAND, but they also sell GPU memory. What's in it for them? Exclusivity?
Click to expand...

Wait a minute. The PCIe bandwidth for Gen5 is 3.938 GB/s per lane. 4x lanes (like used by most NVMe storage) is thus 15.754 GB/s 16x lanes like used by most GPU's is thus 63.015 GB/s

If you actually had to push the data across the PCIe bus (like from system memory), the PCIe bus would certainly factor in, but when running typical GPU tasks only limited data traverses the bus.

For games, the graphics rendering is running on the GPU, but all that traverses the bus during actual gameplay are essentially relatively low bandwidth instructions of what to render. The primary PCIe traversal happens during asset loading.

For LLM's on GPU, they are run entirely on the GPU. The only time the PCIe bus factors in is during loading of a model (or communication between GPU's when a dedicated multi-GPU link is absent). That's why the 1,800GB/s VRAM bandwidth is useful. During processing the model does not need to traverse the PCIe bus in most cases.
 
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Zarathustra[H] said:
Wait a minute. The PCIe bandwidth for Gen5 is 3.938 GB/s per lane. 4x lanes (like used by most NVMe storage) is thus 15.754 GB/s 16x lanes like used by most GPU's is thus 63.015 GB/s
Click to expand...
Hmm... true. However, I think the reason they typically only use x4 lanes is because drives don't demand it. I glanced at a few recent drives and top was a around 14.5GB/s? Maybe there are other that are higher. However, they could just add more lanes or offer the drive as an add-on card, if the bandwidth is a limitation. Adapter options already exist.
Either way, I still don't see the limitation, despite all that you are saying being true. workshop35 may be right.
 
sleepeeg3 said:
Hmm... true. However, I think the reason they typically only use x4 lanes is because drives don't demand it. I glanced at a few recent drives and top was a around 14.5GB/s? Maybe there are other that are higher. However, they could just add more lanes or offer the drive as an add-on card, if the bandwidth is a limitation. Adapter options already exist.
Either way, I still don't see the limitation, despite all that you are saying being true. workshop35 may be right.
Click to expand...
I think 4x is where the mass market is. Very few consumer boards these days have a secondary 8x slot that does not demote the GPU from 16x down to 8x when used.

...and consumer - despite the current shortages and price pressures - is still where the volume is.
 
westrock2000 said:
I just need like 14TB drives to be $100 and I’ll be satisfied. That’s all I ask.
Click to expand...
About 2 years ago I bought a renewed 14TB for $125, earlier today I was looking to add another drive to my media server, and now they start at over $300. Now I'm thinking of pulling the trigger on a 28TB refurbished for $749. It's in my cart, but so hard to continue checking out for a refurbished drive that cost so much. If I wait it's only going to get worse though. If I buy it, then of course they'll drop in price.
 
Eshelmen said:
Umm, isn't the decline in the pc sector due to ridiculously inflated prices?
Click to expand...
memory price will take longer to decrease. storage production is scaleable. plus you can’t sell storage alone. you need to sell the entire system PC/laptop/mobilephone which includes memory. the budget industries have been demolished due to high memory prices. so storage demand has reduced / stagnant. but supply increasing. end result: storage prices to reduce !!
 
Marees said:
memory price will take longer to decrease. storage production is scaleable. plus you can’t sell storage alone. you need to sell the entire system PC/laptop/mobilephone which includes memory. the budget industries have been demolished due to high memory prices. so storage demand has reduced / stagnant. but supply increasing. end result: storage prices to reduce !!
Click to expand...
to clarify: other stuff like CPU / GPU, you can divert production to data centre rather than client

but can't do that for storage (or mother boards)
 
sleepeeg3 said:
Hmm... true. However, I think the reason they typically only use x4 lanes is because drives don't demand it. I glanced at a few recent drives and top was a around 14.5GB/s? Maybe there are other that are higher. However, they could just add more lanes or offer the drive as an add-on card, if the bandwidth is a limitation. Adapter options already exist.
Either way, I still don't see the limitation, despite all that you are saying being true. workshop35 may be right.
Click to expand...

14.5 is probably the real world upper limit for an x4 5.0 SSD, it's about the same percentage down as what multiple previous generations toped out at.

The general lack of wider ones is due to them needing 2/4x as many nand chips to fill the bandwidth. Even ignoring size constraints that doesn't really get you much vs a 2/4 drive RAID0.

Originally I suspect x4 became the standard because it was the most lanes the chipset could provide in a single group and it's bandwidth to the CPU meaning anything faster would be limited to full up PCIe cards and competing for slots.
 
jameshd said:
About 2 years ago I bought a renewed 14TB for $125, earlier today I was looking to add another drive to my media server, and now they start at over $300. Now I'm thinking of pulling the trigger on a 28TB refurbished for $749. It's in my cart, but so hard to continue checking out for a refurbished drive that cost so much. If I wait it's only going to get worse though. If I buy it, then of course they'll drop in price.
Click to expand...
I've been having the same debate.

I have two bays left and had been waiting on filling but had a scare this weekend with a 16TB dropping in and out of smart warning. Turned out to be a bad cable but made me look at the prices and the referbs I usually get are twice the price as before and the new are even worse.
 
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