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DRAM Pricing Jumps 50%, Only 70% of Orders Getting Filled

Epyon said:
These prices will not last for ever but it will last for a long time and that is the sad part.
Click to expand...
Just like gas prices even when the Strait of Hormuz is open. We live in sad and greedy times.
monty-python-you-make-me-sad.gif
 
Apple is trying to get approval to buy CXMT chips. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-...listed-chinese-company-ft-reports-2026-06-27/

Does CXMT pose a national security issue? Or should US consumers support Micron big fat profit margin? Or we need competition to drive down prices? Let see what the regulators will decide on Apple's request to use CXMT.

P.S.
Yes, consumer memory products containing CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) DRAM chips are sold in the US, though the landscape is complex due to strict regulatory scrutiny and geopolitical friction. [1, 2]
While CXMT initially supplied only domestic Chinese markets and lesser-known regional brands, their silicon has recently broken into mainstream international hardware available to US consumers. [1, 2]

Where CXMT Chips Are Found in the US
  • Mainstream Consumer RAM: Global memory brands have integrated CXMT DDR5 chips into retail products to combat the global memory shortage. For example, CXMT silicon can be found powering select kits within Corsair's Vengeance DDR5 lineup, which is widely distributed through major US retailers. [1, 2, 3]
  • Budget and Industrial Modules: Chinese memory brands such as Gloway, KingBank, and Powev utilize CXMT DDR4 and DDR5 dies. These modules are frequently purchased by US buyers through cross-border e-commerce platforms like AliExpress. [1, 2]
  • OEM Pre-built Systems: Major PC manufacturers like Lenovo have begun quietly utilizing CXMT DDR5 modules in some of their laptop lineups (such as select ThinkPad configurations). [1]

The Geopolitical and Legal Catch
Buying or selling products with CXMT chips in the US operates under a cloud of shifting regulatory rules:
  • The Pentagon List: In early 2026, CXMT was removed from the U.S. Department of Defense's Section 1260H list of restricted suppliers, briefly easing restrictions for federal bidding. However, the DoD placed CXMT back on its list of military-linked companies in June 2026. [1, 2, 3, 4]
  • Not Fully Blacklisted (Yet): While the US government has banned its own federal agencies from buying CXMT chips, CXMT is not currently placed on the US Commerce Department’s Entity List. This means it is technically legal for commercial US companies and everyday consumers to buy them. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]
  • Big Tech Corporate Maneuvers: Due to massive supply shortages caused by AI data centers swallowing the capacity of competitors like Micron and Samsung, major OEMs like HP, Dell, and Apple are actively qualifying or lobbying the Trump administration for long-term approval to secure CXMT memory without risking future sanctions. [1, 2, 3]
For the everyday US shopper, unless you are bidding on a government defense contract, there are no legal restrictions preventing you from purchasing or using a RAM kit that utilizes CXMT silicon. [1, 2]
 
pututu said:
Apple is trying to get approval to buy CXMT chips. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-...listed-chinese-company-ft-reports-2026-06-27/

Does CXMT pose a national security issue? Or should US consumers support Micron big fat profit margin? Or we need competition to drive down prices? Let see what the regulators will decide on Apple's request to use CXMT.

P.S.
Yes, consumer memory products containing CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) DRAM chips are sold in the US, though the landscape is complex due to strict regulatory scrutiny and geopolitical friction. [1, 2]
While CXMT initially supplied only domestic Chinese markets and lesser-known regional brands, their silicon has recently broken into mainstream international hardware available to US consumers. [1, 2]

Where CXMT Chips Are Found in the US
  • Mainstream Consumer RAM: Global memory brands have integrated CXMT DDR5 chips into retail products to combat the global memory shortage. For example, CXMT silicon can be found powering select kits within Corsair's Vengeance DDR5 lineup, which is widely distributed through major US retailers. [1, 2, 3]
  • Budget and Industrial Modules: Chinese memory brands such as Gloway, KingBank, and Powev utilize CXMT DDR4 and DDR5 dies. These modules are frequently purchased by US buyers through cross-border e-commerce platforms like AliExpress. [1, 2]
  • OEM Pre-built Systems: Major PC manufacturers like Lenovo have begun quietly utilizing CXMT DDR5 modules in some of their laptop lineups (such as select ThinkPad configurations). [1]

The Geopolitical and Legal Catch
Buying or selling products with CXMT chips in the US operates under a cloud of shifting regulatory rules:
  • The Pentagon List: In early 2026, CXMT was removed from the U.S. Department of Defense's Section 1260H list of restricted suppliers, briefly easing restrictions for federal bidding. However, the DoD placed CXMT back on its list of military-linked companies in June 2026. [1, 2, 3, 4]
  • Not Fully Blacklisted (Yet): While the US government has banned its own federal agencies from buying CXMT chips, CXMT is not currently placed on the US Commerce Department’s Entity List. This means it is technically legal for commercial US companies and everyday consumers to buy them. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]
  • Big Tech Corporate Maneuvers: Due to massive supply shortages caused by AI data centers swallowing the capacity of competitors like Micron and Samsung, major OEMs like HP, Dell, and Apple are actively qualifying or lobbying the Trump administration for long-term approval to secure CXMT memory without risking future sanctions. [1, 2, 3]
For the everyday US shopper, unless you are bidding on a government defense contract, there are no legal restrictions preventing you from purchasing or using a RAM kit that utilizes CXMT silicon. [1, 2]
Click to expand...
I'm sure Apple would make sure the chips are not fudged for security reasons.
 
Sigh. On Nov 23 2023 i purchased 16GB crucial kit for $35 !!!
Today that exact same product less then 3 years later is 4x more at 135. Weird now amazon ai just lowered the price to 110 probably because i looked at how much i previously pai.d
A few weeks ago from price history it was $163.00
-
Electronics are suppose to go down not up in price !!! I think all cities should BAN ai centers.
 
pututu said:
Apple is trying to get approval to buy CXMT chips. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-...listed-chinese-company-ft-reports-2026-06-27/

Does CXMT pose a national security issue? Or should US consumers support Micron big fat profit margin? Or we need competition to drive down prices? Let see what the regulators will decide on Apple's request to use CXMT.

P.S.
Yes, consumer memory products containing CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) DRAM chips are sold in the US, though the landscape is complex due to strict regulatory scrutiny and geopolitical friction. [1, 2]
While CXMT initially supplied only domestic Chinese markets and lesser-known regional brands, their silicon has recently broken into mainstream international hardware available to US consumers. [1, 2]

Where CXMT Chips Are Found in the US
  • Mainstream Consumer RAM: Global memory brands have integrated CXMT DDR5 chips into retail products to combat the global memory shortage. For example, CXMT silicon can be found powering select kits within Corsair's Vengeance DDR5 lineup, which is widely distributed through major US retailers. [1, 2, 3]
  • Budget and Industrial Modules: Chinese memory brands such as Gloway, KingBank, and Powev utilize CXMT DDR4 and DDR5 dies. These modules are frequently purchased by US buyers through cross-border e-commerce platforms like AliExpress. [1, 2]
  • OEM Pre-built Systems: Major PC manufacturers like Lenovo have begun quietly utilizing CXMT DDR5 modules in some of their laptop lineups (such as select ThinkPad configurations). [1]

The Geopolitical and Legal Catch
Buying or selling products with CXMT chips in the US operates under a cloud of shifting regulatory rules:
  • The Pentagon List: In early 2026, CXMT was removed from the U.S. Department of Defense's Section 1260H list of restricted suppliers, briefly easing restrictions for federal bidding. However, the DoD placed CXMT back on its list of military-linked companies in June 2026. [1, 2, 3, 4]
  • Not Fully Blacklisted (Yet): While the US government has banned its own federal agencies from buying CXMT chips, CXMT is not currently placed on the US Commerce Department’s Entity List. This means it is technically legal for commercial US companies and everyday consumers to buy them. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]
  • Big Tech Corporate Maneuvers: Due to massive supply shortages caused by AI data centers swallowing the capacity of competitors like Micron and Samsung, major OEMs like HP, Dell, and Apple are actively qualifying or lobbying the Trump administration for long-term approval to secure CXMT memory without risking future sanctions. [1, 2, 3]
For the everyday US shopper, unless you are bidding on a government defense contract, there are no legal restrictions preventing you from purchasing or using a RAM kit that utilizes CXMT silicon. [1, 2]
Click to expand...

pututu said:
Apple is trying to get approval to buy CXMT chips. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-...listed-chinese-company-ft-reports-2026-06-27/

Does CXMT pose a national security issue? Or should US consumers support Micron big fat profit margin? Or we need competition to drive down prices? Let see what the regulators will decide on Apple's request to use CXMT.

P.S.
Yes, consumer memory products containing CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) DRAM chips are sold in the US, though the landscape is complex due to strict regulatory scrutiny and geopolitical friction. [1, 2]
While CXMT initially supplied only domestic Chinese markets and lesser-known regional brands, their silicon has recently broken into mainstream international hardware available to US consumers. [1, 2]

Where CXMT Chips Are Found in the US
  • Mainstream Consumer RAM: Global memory brands have integrated CXMT DDR5 chips into retail products to combat the global memory shortage. For example, CXMT silicon can be found powering select kits within Corsair's Vengeance DDR5 lineup, which is widely distributed through major US retailers. [1, 2, 3]
  • Budget and Industrial Modules: Chinese memory brands such as Gloway, KingBank, and Powev utilize CXMT DDR4 and DDR5 dies. These modules are frequently purchased by US buyers through cross-border e-commerce platforms like AliExpress. [1, 2]
  • OEM Pre-built Systems: Major PC manufacturers like Lenovo have begun quietly utilizing CXMT DDR5 modules in some of their laptop lineups (such as select ThinkPad configurations). [1]

The Geopolitical and Legal Catch
Buying or selling products with CXMT chips in the US operates under a cloud of shifting regulatory rules:
  • The Pentagon List: In early 2026, CXMT was removed from the U.S. Department of Defense's Section 1260H list of restricted suppliers, briefly easing restrictions for federal bidding. However, the DoD placed CXMT back on its list of military-linked companies in June 2026. [1, 2, 3, 4]
  • Not Fully Blacklisted (Yet): While the US government has banned its own federal agencies from buying CXMT chips, CXMT is not currently placed on the US Commerce Department’s Entity List. This means it is technically legal for commercial US companies and everyday consumers to buy them. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]
  • Big Tech Corporate Maneuvers: Due to massive supply shortages caused by AI data centers swallowing the capacity of competitors like Micron and Samsung, major OEMs like HP, Dell, and Apple are actively qualifying or lobbying the Trump administration for long-term approval to secure CXMT memory without risking future sanctions. [1, 2, 3]
For the everyday US shopper, unless you are bidding on a government defense contract, there are no legal restrictions preventing you from purchasing or using a RAM kit that utilizes CXMT silicon. [1, 2]
Click to expand...
LoL Apple trying to solve a problem it helped create.

“During the last memory downturn, DRAM prices collapsed so far that suppliers, including Micron, saw gross margins sink into negative territory. Apple used its position as the world's largest memory buyer to negotiate rock-bottom prices. Micron Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana publicly criticized those negotiations, saying Apple's purchasing tactics were "not constructive" because they discouraged suppliers from investing in new manufacturing capacity.”
 
vegeta535 said:
I decided to take a ride up to Microcenter today and looking at the prices I believe this hobby is dead. It is only going to get worse.
Click to expand...
It is going to get worse before it gets "more worse." The DIY and general desktop PC industry is going to be decimated. I have talked to more than a few PC builders here in the USA, and there is nothing good to be said at all. We are going to lose a lot of good independent builders. The "budget" box builders are not going to make it as there will be no path to support that business model any longer. The bigger high-end builders, boutique builders, many of those will make the divide, but I think unless a company already has a foothold in the upper ASP-end of the TAM, there will not be a sustainable vector to stay afloat. Some of this is already happening.

The likes of Dell, Lenovo, etc., will be fine, but the price increases will be there for sure. The big trick is if a company will be able to source parts at all.

Mega6 said:
Apple used its position as the world's largest memory buyer to negotiate rock-bottom prices.
Click to expand...

Going to be a lot of companies that remember that very vividly as well. Not taking a "partner" strategy is going to hinder Apple, especially while a lot of companies saw heavily negotiated deals, while Apple has the highest profit margins in the TAM.
 
Red Falcon said:
Speaking of that, and Micron:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1jsbfouRQY

Privatize the profits and socialize the losses. -Steve
Click to expand...


As far as his "levers that you can pull" rant, it is absolutely of no help to anyone right now outside of NIMBY (which is valid as far as his "levers you can pull." All these datacenters are coming whether you like it or not, and it will continue till the bubble pops. NIMBY is great, but it will just shift the actual build elsewhere.

And I do think this is a bubble. Most huge industry-wide changes have been historically. Just think about the Gold Rush that started in 1848. It was a bubble. Plenty of people got rich, and many went broke, and many died. I lived through the "Internet bubble," and I see this AI bubble shaking out the same way. There are huge Capital Expenditures happening currently. There will be winners and losers. All the money is racing to be the winner. This is exactly the way venture capital works today. ~75% of venture-backed companies never return any cash to investors. 10–15% deliver the outsized returns that actually being sought out by VC money.
 
FrgMstr said:
As far as his "levers that you can pull" rant, it is absolutely of no help to anyone right now outside of NIMBY (which is valid as far as his "levers you can pull." All these datacenters are coming whether you like it or not, and it will continue till the bubble pops. NIMBY is great, but it will just shift the actual build elsewhere.
Click to expand...
I mean, to be fair, I think being NIMBY about datacenters is pretty reasonable. I personally am not saying "don't build them" but I would like them not built near me, same as a coal plant or the like. Goes double since the new DCs seem to be being built quite cheaply and often doing on-site electric generation which makes them very loud. So ya, in my case, please don't build those near me. I can see why people who've had that happen are mad.

I can also see people being NIMBY on a larger scale like a whole state if they are under water restrictions because of drought and a DC wants to come in and use millions of gallons of water a year. No, it isn't as big a use as agriculture, but it feels shitty to be told "use less water but also we are approving this thing that uses a ton of water because fuck you."
 
pututu said:
Does CXMT pose a national security issue? Or should US consumers support Micron big fat profit margin?
Click to expand...
The only people who think this supports China are the same people who haven't woken up to Israel being the real threat.
Or we need competition to drive down prices? Let see what the regulators will decide on Apple's request to use CXMT.
Click to expand...
We need competition to drive down prices. Every time we sanction a country and put tariffs on imports, we're eliminating competition. All this does is feed into inflation. Also, if Apple does get a special exemption to use CXMT then that hurts competitors like Dell and HP. Apple is powerful enough to get that exemption too.
 
DukenukemX said:
I still don't get how this isn't considered market manipulation? Isn't this for ram that hasn't been made, for GPU's that haven't been made, for data centers that will likely not get made? People are pushing back against data centers HARD.
Click to expand...

"Apple Seeks U.S. Approval to Use Sanctioned Chinese Memory Maker CXMT​

by AleksandarK Today, 11:18 Discuss (6 Comments)
Apple has reportedly been negotiating with the U.S. government to get clearance to use sanctioned Chinese memory maker CXMT in its products. According to a report from the Financial Times, Apple is in talks with the U.S. government to clear the previously blacklisted Chinese entity. The U.S. government had earlier placed Chinese memory maker CXMT on a sanctions list, preventing American companies from purchasing products like the now highly sought-after DRAM. This has created a challenging situation given the severe supply shortage the entire industry is facing. Since the big three—Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron—are ramping up capacity at an insufficient rate, sourcing DRAM from another supplier would help ease the pressure on electronics makers by providing better pricing, more supply, and facilitating product shipments.

CXMT is capable of manufacturing the latest DDR5 and its low-power sibling LPDDR5X memory. Late last year, the company showcased DDR5-8000 and LPDDR5X-10667 DRAM modules that are in mass production. These memory modules are available in 12 Gb and 16 Gb LPDDR5X capacities, while DDR5 scales to 16 Gb and 24 Gb module formats. However, a significant problem remains. Even if Apple gets clearance from the U.S. government to use CXMT memory, the company likely can't satisfy domestic demand first before shipping the quantity that Apple would require. Some estimates suggest CXMT could reach over $50 billion in revenue by 2026, according to SemiAnalysis, indicating that domestic demand is so strong that CXMT is rapidly selling out wafers."
 
erek said:

"Apple Seeks U.S. Approval to Use Sanctioned Chinese Memory Maker CXMT​

by AleksandarK Today, 11:18 Discuss (6 Comments)
Apple has reportedly been negotiating with the U.S. government to get clearance to use sanctioned Chinese memory maker CXMT in its products. According to a report from the Financial Times, Apple is in talks with the U.S. government to clear the previously blacklisted Chinese entity. The U.S. government had earlier placed Chinese memory maker CXMT on a sanctions list, preventing American companies from purchasing products like the now highly sought-after DRAM. This has created a challenging situation given the severe supply shortage the entire industry is facing. Since the big three—Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron—are ramping up capacity at an insufficient rate, sourcing DRAM from another supplier would help ease the pressure on electronics makers by providing better pricing, more supply, and facilitating product shipments.

CXMT is capable of manufacturing the latest DDR5 and its low-power sibling LPDDR5X memory. Late last year, the company showcased DDR5-8000 and LPDDR5X-10667 DRAM modules that are in mass production. These memory modules are available in 12 Gb and 16 Gb LPDDR5X capacities, while DDR5 scales to 16 Gb and 24 Gb module formats. However, a significant problem remains. Even if Apple gets clearance from the U.S. government to use CXMT memory, the company likely can't satisfy domestic demand first before shipping the quantity that Apple would require. Some estimates suggest CXMT could reach over $50 billion in revenue by 2026, according to SemiAnalysis, indicating that domestic demand is so strong that CXMT is rapidly selling out wafers."
Click to expand...
https://hardforum.com/threads/dram-...orders-getting-filled.2044343/post-1046344680
Anyway, if approved or not, we should all know the reason behind the government decision.
 
FrgMstr said:
And I do think this is a bubble. Most huge industry-wide changes have been historically. Just think about the Gold Rush that started in 1848. It was a bubble. Plenty of people got rich, and many went broke, and many died. I lived through the "Internet bubble," and I see this AI bubble shaking out the same way. There are huge Capital Expenditures happening currently. There will be winners and losers. All the money is racing to be the winner. This is exactly the way venture capital works today. ~75% of venture-backed companies never return any cash to investors. 10–15% deliver the outsized returns that actually being sought out by VC money.
Click to expand...
Yep....I have diversified out of the big index funds in my 401k and personal accounts. I have 70% in dividend funds that mostly match SCHD...ish. The rest is sitting in treasury funds (effectively cash with ~3.5% returns...barely over 0 after inflation). This the dollar cost averaging mechanism for the dividend funds. I basically direct deposit the same split, and any dips I move cash into dividend funds. I have no idea how this looks in 10 years except it isn't what we have today. We have it wrong today is my only confident bet right now. If/when the unwind kicks off, I will start buying into the dip and moving there...but slowly. Maybe a month or 2 after the FED starts pumping money to keep banks liquid during the correction I will start going back into index funds. I would rather lock in 7-8% YOY gains without the risk this market is posing. As a voice of some authority here, like that you're calling it what it is.
 
kram182 said:
Bubbles (if there is one) don't always pop - sometimes they just deflate, almost unnoticeably.
Click to expand...
There's truth to this, but that doesn't change anything about how I am investing. If anything, that just means index funds will be barely over flat YOY for the unwind. Which is much worse than bubble with forced selling. In either case, until indexes match historic P/E, they don't make sense to me to buy.
 
pututu said:
https://hardforum.com/threads/dram-...orders-getting-filled.2044343/post-1046344680
Anyway, if approved or not, we should all know the reason behind the government decision.
Click to expand...

“DRAM Triarchy Hit with Class-Action Lawsuit Alleging Memory Price-fixing and Cartel Behavior​

by btarunr Today, 08:47 Discuss (24 Comments)
A class-action lawsuit has been filed in the U.S. alleging that the three leading DRAM manufacturers, namely Micron Technology, Samsung Electronics, and SK Hynix, are engaged in price-fixing and causing artificial scarcities to keep prices of computer memory high. Consumer DDR5 PC memory saw a near 700% inflation in price in a span of just 1 year, caused mainly by DRAM manufacturers allocating their production capacity to HBM stacks used by AI compute GPUs; and booking orders years into the future, which would keep a large percentage of their manufacturing capacity occupied with HBM production going as far into the future as 2030.

The lawsuit calls for PC memory manufacturers to restore consumer DRAM production and availability. Among the plenty of examples the lawsuit can cite, it mentions Apple's recent decision to increase the prices of all its products, including Macs and iPhones, citing escalating memory prices. The lawsuit alleges collusion and cartel-like behavior by Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix, to coordinate pricing. It also cites evidence of such activity in the past, specifically in the year 2000, where the U.S. Department of Justice fined these companies hundreds of millions of dollars, besides prison sentences for several company executives.“
 
erek said:

“DRAM Triarchy Hit with Class-Action Lawsuit Alleging Memory Price-fixing and Cartel Behavior​

by btarunr Today, 08:47 Discuss (24 Comments)
A class-action lawsuit has been filed in the U.S. alleging that the three leading DRAM manufacturers, namely Micron Technology, Samsung Electronics, and SK Hynix, are engaged in price-fixing and causing artificial scarcities to keep prices of computer memory high. Consumer DDR5 PC memory saw a near 700% inflation in price in a span of just 1 year, caused mainly by DRAM manufacturers allocating their production capacity to HBM stacks used by AI compute GPUs; and booking orders years into the future, which would keep a large percentage of their manufacturing capacity occupied with HBM production going as far into the future as 2030.

The lawsuit calls for PC memory manufacturers to restore consumer DRAM production and availability. Among the plenty of examples the lawsuit can cite, it mentions Apple's recent decision to increase the prices of all its products, including Macs and iPhones, citing escalating memory prices. The lawsuit alleges collusion and cartel-like behavior by Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix, to coordinate pricing. It also cites evidence of such activity in the past, specifically in the year 2000, where the U.S. Department of Justice fined these companies hundreds of millions of dollars, besides prison sentences for several company executives.“
Click to expand...
The blurb pasted here doesn't really show any sign of collusion - doesn't mean it doesn't exist but hey if i were a manufacturer and there is an extreme shortage of a high selling module i'd definitely make more of those - having said that I would love for the govt to step in and mandate that some production of consumer products be kept at reasonable prices. of course large coorporations like apple would be prohibit from purchasing such and as we can see this is not really do-able in a simple fashion.
-
the bigger issue is the host of problems being caused by these likely short lived ai-data centers. And i would love to see a nation wide pause on their construction even if such has to be enacted on state by state.
 
  • Like
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like this
gtrguy said:
Don’t worry, they’ll probably give the big liar something shiny and they will get off with a slap on the wrist.
Click to expand...
for having done what ? The idea that make HBM was not something they could have 3 though would be quite profitable to do is quite the stretch....

Here they could be relying on discovery showing something in emails or just company not wanting discovery to happen and settle outside of court.

That HBM is highly profitable to do but you cannot just do this for technical reason do seem quite sound here and the margin for datacenter and consumer tend to stay close (with the best at making HBM making more of it and the worse making more ddr/lpddr) in way you would expect with zero colussion.
 
Micron and semis were down quite a bit this morning but obviously the scum HFs ran the short sw, long hw algos wild again at 10:30 am EST.
 
LukeTbk said:
for having done what ?
Click to expand...
Selling ram that nobody currently has a use for? The mechanism behind this DRAM crisis is based on Data Centers being built, but we know not all of them will be built. What will likely happen is that the Data Centers don't get built and the DRAM gets returned and refunded, but for a time there was a massive profit increase for the three major DRAM companies. Wouldn't be the first time there was price fixing with DRAM.
 
LukeTbk said:
for having done what ?
Click to expand...
I don’t know if you had a strike for the bit after the above or your autocorrect did, but I have no idea what you were actually trying to convey other than the actual quoted question.

So first we start with the fact that ram manufacturers seem to get caught engaging in collusion every few years. If it’s been more than five years since the last judgement against them, it’s probably time to do it again. So the question is what kind of things could they potentially be doing?

So we already know the demand is kind of sketchy. OpenAI places orders for memory they had no way to finance to limit competitors access to ram. Alternatively it’s also possible they are playing arbitrage games to undermine the fiscal viability of peeler they have financial commitments to like Oracle. They don’t have money to pay Oracle either. But if they can run up ram prices to the point Oracle can’t deliver they could have just increased their competitors costs and reduced their future liabilities to their vendors. It might not even have a lot of downside if they can just resell their hoarders ram allocations for a profit. At least one of the ram manufacturers has publicly stated they don’t believe these orders are legitimate demand, and believe the industry needs to hedge against them being in bad faith and effectively hacking ram manufactures funding ai company battles. They are strategizing between themselves. Additionally, they said that X% of existing contracts are going to go unfulfilled. No matter how you slice it, that means they are deciding what contracts to not fulfill and by how much. Once you start doing that, you become responsible for the methodology. If they get caught playing favorites or punishing certain business partners, you can wind up being prosecutable.

Additionally, some of these manufacturers have made deals to engage in expansion of manufacturing. There have received subsidies. If they are deliberately engaging in delaying tactics to maximize profits from the current demand, that could be another prosecutable thing. Someone posted an image of the hassles they are experiencing in Syracuse. It makes you shake your head and say “damn I can see how they can’t ramp up production if expansion is this stupid.” Which is how it reads. If it happens to be the case that micron can’t build a factory in Syracuse because they are being sued by various nimby groups that sucks. If they are being sued because they secretly funded those nimby groups to sue them because they don’t want to build it to keep prices up… well that would be an entirely different thing going on. Probably something criminal.

They say they are converting factories to hbm production. If they aren’t actually doing that and just shunting X% of production of ddr5 to warehouses to drive up the price of non hbm memory too, that’d be a problem.

If their collusion between OpenAI and one or more manufacturers to manipulate the ram market in any unlawful way, that too would be a prosecutable problem.

Any of these things are viable possibilities.
 
DukenukemX said:
Selling ram that nobody currently has a use for? The mechanism behind this DRAM crisis is based on Data Centers being built, but we know not all of them will be built. What will likely happen is that the Data Centers don't get built and the DRAM gets returned and refunded, but for a time there was a massive profit increase for the three major DRAM companies. Wouldn't be the first time there was price fixing with DRAM.
Click to expand...

You don't get to do returns when doing contract bids with the memory manufacturers. You pay whether you take the memory/chips or not (therefore you take them regardless).
 
kram182 said:
You don't get to do returns when doing contract bids with the memory manufacturers. You pay whether you take the memory/chips or not (therefore you take them regardless).
Click to expand...
Yeah, I have never heard of those chips purchased for BOM kits going back, unless those were defective.
 
DukenukemX said:
Selling ram that nobody currently has a use for? The mechanism behind this DRAM crisis is based on Data Centers being built, but we know not all of them will be built. What will likely happen is that the Data Centers don't get built and the DRAM gets returned and refunded, but for a time there was a massive profit increase for the three major DRAM companies. Wouldn't be the first time there was price fixing with DRAM.
Click to expand...
https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/stop-saying-half-of-2026-us-datacenter, that vastly exagerated about solid projects, not all of them being built is always something and not that meaningfull.

es%2F61f61344-af89-4979-9d7f-23f6d645cb33_1542x993.jpg
es%2F61f61344-af89-4979-9d7f-23f6d645cb33_1542x993.jpg


data center that do not get built neverr got close to have gpu for them, it take 18-36+ months to build, you do not stock GPUs and the HBM on them before starting construction and have need to resale them after (as if Nvidia need to provide refund option.....)

Demand and actual build up is so high, that cancelled project that would have reserved future to be built in the future GPUs get reallocated.

It would not be the first time of course, but the link between Mac Laptop price going up and colussion is far from obvious. Actual attraction toward extremelly expensive HBM and nvidia that pre-buy it....
 
raz-0 said:
So we already know the demand is kind of sketchy. OpenAI places orders for memory they had no way to finance to limit competitors access to ram.
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OpenAI do generally not place big orders, StarGates LLC did (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stargate_LLC), and being a softbank-oracle-mgx joint venture they have some of the biggest world coffer to be able to finance it, OpenAI committement in the venture being helped by Microsoft softer engagement, who also have a lot of money.

They bough future HBM wafer, which will not do much about current ddr price and help capacity growth in the future happen, it is possible they cannot resell that ram allocation for a profit and decide to all use it for their own projects, but that project I think the reporting the 3 company did not knew they were all bidding on it and were took by surprise, not really pointing toward a collusion among them.
raz-0 said:
. If they are deliberately engaging in delaying tactics to maximize profits from the current demand, that could be another prosecutable thing.
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Yes of course, depending on the term and details of the subsidies. Otherwise if they do not collude at it and all decide to do it feering a crash and slowing down ramping up, that not usually prosecutable.


Here the argument (has capex and production is exploding) of the plaintiff will rely that the big 3, did put lot of effort into building lower yield high end product (HBM) having as known effect to reduce total available bits and will try to proof that without colluding despite the giant amount of money thrown at them to do so would not have been the most profitable thing to do for at least one of them, one of the 3 would have took the exact opposite strategy to eat up the dram having anticipating or knew in advance the move of the other 2.
 
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