• Some users have recently had their accounts hijacked. It seems that the now defunct EVGA forums might have compromised your password there and seems many are using the same PW here. We would suggest you UPDATE YOUR PASSWORD and TURN ON 2FA for your account here to further secure it. None of the compromised accounts had 2FA turned on.
    Once you have enabled 2FA, your account will be updated soon to show a badge, letting other members know that you use 2FA to protect your account. This should be beneficial for everyone that uses FSFT.

OpenAI Files to Go Public as A.I. Companies Rush to Wall St.

P

philb2

2[H]4U
Joined
May 26, 2021
Messages
3,471
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/08/...1165&user_id=c383821527c441214d07ce6e4a6ba12a

I.P.O.s from the three companies could unleash an avalanche of wealth and create the world’s first trillionaire in Mr. Musk, who owns about 50 percent of SpaceX. And they could unlock millions of dollars for employees of the A.I. companies, potentially setting off a real estate and investment boom in tech-centric cities like San Francisco.

​

But the I.P.O.s, which have been widely anticipated by investors eager to get a piece of the tech industry’s A.I. craze, come with risks. None of the three companies is believed to be profitable, and all are saddled with enormous costs as they build huge data centers to power their A.I. systems. Many local communities are also pushing back against the construction of the giant complexes while white-collar workers are increasingly concerned they’re going to lose their jobs to the new technology.
 
Lakados said:
they can’t make the needed returns to justify their stock prices.
Click to expand...
Latest private round was at $852 billions for OpenAI (https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai/), if they launch at 1 trillion it will not be a big difference in that regard.

Anthropic at 965 billions....

What/why would not able to make your private price any different than your public one, when it is at those scale with a next round over 1 billion and the type of player that would have started to be involved ?

The forced clean up of the ownership sheet (and structure for OpenAI) that going public would force and the entry of capitals seem quite good, forcing GAAP positibe ebidta soon has well specially if they have all to play under those "rules".

As for consolidation happening because of this (or faster than in private), not sure at all, groq got bought and was private, seem as easy or easier to consolidate private company with few big owner to convince... Deepmind got consolidated by Google, if it was a public company structitiny would have been higher usually.

And for consolidation of a new wave/branch of an industry being its end ? That pretty much always what happen, many players, end up with a big 3 and a bunch of niches players.... memory consolidating was not the end of it, Internet consolidating, movie studios, pro baseballs/football league, all 250 american automaker teaming up as a big 3 by 1950s, telecom...

That consolidation is often an important part of driving cost and price down, if AMD, nvidia, tesla, google, meta, apple, amazon and microsoft end up buying most of the new guy in the next 5 years why would it be the beginning of the fall of anything ?
 
LukeTbk said:
Latest private round was at $852 billions for OpenAI (https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai/), if they launch at 1 trillion it will not be a big difference in that regard.

Anthropic at 965 billions....

What/why would not able to make your private price any different than your public one, when it is at those scale with a next round over 1 billion and the type of player that would have started to be involved ?

The forced clean up of the ownership sheet (and structure for OpenAI) that going public would force and the entry of capitals seem quite good, forcing GAAP positibe ebidta soon has well specially if they have all to play under those "rules".

As for consolidation happening because of this (or faster than in private), not sure at all, groq got bought and was private, seem as easy or easier to consolidate private company with few big owner to convince... Deepmind got consolidated by Google, if it was a public company structitiny would have been higher usually.

And for consolidation of a new wave/branch of an industry being its end ? That pretty much always what happen, many players, end up with a big 3 and a bunch of niches players.... memory consolidating was not the end of it, Internet consolidating, movie studios, pro baseballs/football league, all 250 american automaker teaming up as a big 3 by 1950s, telecom...

That consolidation is often an important part of driving cost and price down, if AMD, nvidia, tesla, google, meta, apple, amazon and microsoft end up buying most of the new guy in the next 5 years why would it be the beginning of the fall of anything ?
Click to expand...
Sure, yeah, investors are throwing money at them, but how much revenue are they bringing in from consumers who use their products? Because it's not in the trillions.
They are already talking about having to start charging subscriptions.
 
Lakados said:
Sure, yeah, investors are throwing money at them, but how much revenue are they bringing in from consumers who use their products? Because it's not in the trillions.
Click to expand...
getting close to 80 billion ARR combined or something like that, no one is in the trillion in revenues of course, not even Walmart or Saudi Aramco.

Lakados said:
They are already talking about having to start charging subscriptions.
Click to expand...
yes, which would be true for private equity or public, one big usual difference is scale, but when your next private equity round would have been over 1 billion evaluation, they can start to play quite similarly than the public market one.
 
LukeTbk said:
getting close to 80 billion ARR combined or something like that, no one is in the trillion in revenues of course, not even Walmart or Saudi Aramco.


yes, which would be true for private equity or public, one big usual difference is scale, but when your next private equity round would have been over 1 billion evaluation, they can start to play quite similarly than the public market one.
Click to expand...
My point is, investors are going to want to see returns on their investments at some point in the near future, and I doubt the numbers will be acceptable to them, especially given the costs involved in maintaining the technology.
 
Lakados said:
My point is, investors are going to want to see returns on their investments at some point in the near future, and I doubt the numbers will be acceptable to them, especially given the costs involved in maintaining the technology.
Click to expand...
yes of course, private equity can be a bit more patient (that more a case by case of who they are), but that would have been true at some point has well, Epic need to show returns to its investor.

Company cannot go public without having to start to use GAAP of the previous years, it will not be a surprise.

Amazon took around 6-7 years before having a profitable year post IPO, Uber took a while, twitter was unprofitable almost all of its public years and was doing well on the stock market, depends what the revenues curve look like, reason for cost and so on, public market are still sophiscated enough to take a lot into account.

Or salesforce:
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/CRM/salesforce/net-income vs https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRM/

took what 13 years to reach profitability, was doing well on the stock market, it is even a common things some people misleading say, company that are worth the most are those that lost money (which of course is false), but if you are creating good reason to believe in future free cash flow, you can stay unprofitable a long time. Tesla, Moderna, there is a list of companies that public stock market was patient with.

And there is a lot of example of private equity doing very aggressive short term change to reach profitabiltiy fast post acquisition, not sure there is much rules either way about this, it is a case by case affair.
 
Lakados said:
Sure, yeah, investors are throwing money at them, but how much revenue are they bringing in from consumers who use their products? Because it's not in the trillions.
They are already talking about having to start charging subscriptions.
Click to expand...

Anthropic is making billions from Claude right now. They are actually experiencing the fastest revenue growth in corporate history. Annualized they climbed from $1 billion ARR in 2024, to $9 billion in 2025, and now tracking for $30 billion in 2026. It's unprecedented revenue growth for any company, let alone AI company.
 
HockeyJon said:
Anthropic is making billions from Claude right now. They are actually experiencing the fastest revenue growth in corporate history. Annualized they climbed from $1 billion ARR in 2024, to $9 billion in 2025, and now tracking for $30 billion in 2026. It's unprecedented revenue growth for any company, let alone AI company.
Click to expand...
ARR = Average Rate of Return or something else?

Since they are not public, do they need to file or publish audited financials based on GAAP?
 
philb2 said:
ARR = Average Rate of Return or something else?

Since they are not public, do they need to file or publish audited financials based on GAAP?
Click to expand...

ARR = annual run rate, so they’re annualizing a projection of their current revenue across 12 months in order to make the comparison fair.

They’ve filed paperwork to IPO this year, so they will have to report GAAP earnings.

A lot of people that seem to think none of this is real. Both the companies creating AI and the companies that are using AI are reporting the spend on a regular basis, and the information is freely available to anyone who cares to look. We can be annoyed all we want to be about the state of our hobby vis-a-vis RAM and GPU prices, but none of that frustration changes the reality on the ground about the insatiable demand for compute and the fact that said compute is being put to real use.
 
They need to show profit over the course of a year to be accepted into S&P 500?
Anyone here is gonna buy puts?
 
stuffmonger said:
For 1 quarter according to their own accounting methods according to WSJ.
Click to expand...
yup if things goes well they would stop to be again, profitability was an error caused by hard to predicts level of explosive revenues combined with lack of access to compute... they should be right on track to be able to finance growth fast enough right away.
 
LukeTbk said:
yup if things goes well they would stop to be again, profitability was an error caused by hard to predicts level of explosive revenues combined with lack of access to compute... they should be right on track to be able to finance growth fast enough right away.
Click to expand...
It's not an error. They don't disclose how long the current compute deals will last. SpaceX discounts expired in May according to the SEC filing.
 
Lakados said:
This could be the beginning of the fall of AI.

Fingers crossed

Too many of these companies launch to a massive IPO to fold 2 years later as everyone and their dogs consolidate as they can’t make the needed returns to justify their stock prices.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be the case. AI companies have funded a loophole through our government and are now using your 401k to pay for their failed AI bubble. Instead of a tax payer bailout, it's now a 401k bailout. They can now sustain themselves indefinitely. This is what happens when you get less government. Someone bigger and more powerful will make use of that government and pass new laws and change the rules.


View: https://youtu.be/yhRjvX_t4hc?si=KiIdvhj7BoWI20cP

View: https://youtu.be/-X6YzlY_8tM?si=k6zDyZRwUh7LckyA
 
stuffmonger said:
It's not an error. They don't disclose how long the current compute deals will last. SpaceX discounts expired in May according to the SEC filing.
Click to expand...
error I mean by that, failure to spend enough to still loose money, caused by a lack of access to compute, not a accounting mistake.
 
LukeTbk said:
error I mean by that, failure to spend enough to still loose money, caused by a lack of access to compute, not a accounting mistake.
Click to expand...
To be frank, I give no shits about Anthropic, because they're not in the consumer market.
 
This would be the phase of the bubble where someone else is given the bag to hold just before the it pops.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top